Evaluating First-Round NFL Draft Trades: Did the Jaguars, Browns, Giants and More Come Out on Top?

Trades in the first round of the draft might be the most fun part of the whole thing. Those major moves could work out, like when the Chiefs took an unexpected swing at Patrick Mahomes, but sometimes, they turn the other way, like the early returns on the Bryce Young trade (though there's still time for that story to be written).

We don't know how trades will work out until years later, but that's not good enough: we need to know who won NOW. There are different ways to evaluate trades, but I like numbers, so I generally defer to draft pick value charts, like the Jimmy Johnson chart and the Chase Stuart chart.

Those charts are just two examples, and each team has a more defined way of how they value picks. Since I'm not going to make my own chart, those from Johnson and Stuart are the best public resources to place value on picks.

Below, I measured each trade made in Round 1 using both the Johnson and Chase charts. We will compare the two and see where there are clear winners. The charts generally agreed with each other on Thursday's moves.

Jaguars make a huge move into the top two

Jaguars get

• No. 2 (2,600 points on JJ chart/30.2 points on CS chart)
• No. 104 (86/5)
• No. 200 (11/0.9)

Browns get

• No. 5 (1,700/24.3)
• No. 36 (540/11.8)
• No. 126 (46/3.8)
• 2026 first-round pick (1,000/16.9)

Future picks can fairly be valued in the middle of the respective round, but teams surely also do some projecting when acquiring a future first-round pick to determine where it will fall. Jacksonville's first rounder could easily be in the top 10 again next season. For our purposes, we'll treat the 2026 first as the 16th pick, right in the middle.

This trade is a win for the Browns on the Johnson chart 3,286 points to 2,697, a difference equaling the 32nd pick. By the Stuart chart, Cleveland won the trade 56.8 to 36.1, a difference equal to the ninth pick. Both charts say that the Browns picked up an extra first-round pick in total value with this trade.

Travis Hunter, the player Jacksonville traded up to draft, might be a star, but Cleveland got their own blue-chip prospect in defensive tackle Mason Graham with the fifth pick. This is a clear win for the Browns; I would be very happy as a Browns fan while hating the trade as a Jags fan.

Giants get their quarterback

Giants get

• No. 25 (720/14.1)

Texans get

• No. 34 (560/12.1)
• No. 99 (104/5.3)
• 2026 third-round pick (190/6.7)

Houston is the value winner in this one: 854 to 720 by the Johnson chart (difference of the 91st pick) and 24.1 to 14.1 by the Stuart chart (difference of the 47th pick). The Texans added a mid-second-round pick by the Stuart chart and a late third by the Johnson chart. It's not nearly as big a win as the Browns, but this is closer to how most trades usually end up.

New York acquired their second first-round pick in order to draft QB Jaxson Dart from Ole Miss. It will be a huge win for the Giants if Dart hits and is an above-average quarterback, but Houston wasn't going to take a passer, and they clearly upgraded their value by making this trade.

Falcons double up on pass rushers

Falcons get

• No. 26 (700/13.9)
• No. 101 (96/5.2)

Rams get

• No. 46 (440/10.2)
• No. 242 (1/0.1)
• 2026 first-round pick (1,000/16.9)

This is another case of the team moving down getting a major win. The 2026 first rounder is already more valuable than the first-round pick Atlanta got; the Falcons' pick next year will probably be higher than No. 26. On top of that, LA got the 46th and 242nd picks for the 101st pick.

By the Johnson chart, the Rams win this one 1,441 to 796, giving LA the value of about the 29th pick. The Stuart chart gives Los Angeles the win by a margin of 27.2 to 19.1, the difference of the 64th pick. That's a late-second-round pick according to Stuart and a late first by Johnson's measure.

The Falcons were expected to draft a pass rusher last year but opted for quarterback Michael Penix Jr. They made up for it in a big way here, first taking Georgia's Jalon Walker 15th overall then trading back into the first round for James Pearce Jr. of Tennessee. Those two SEC rookies could help in a big way eventually, but Atlanta paid a major price for the opportunity.

Eagles move up one spot

Eagles get

• No. 31 (600/12.7)

Chiefs get

• No. 32 (590/12.5)
• No. 164 (25.8/2.1)

The Chiefs get a modest win here: 615.8 to 600 on the Johnson chart (difference of 189th pick) and 14.6 to 12.7 on the Stuart chart (169th pick). That means KC got the surplus value of a mid-sixth-round pick by the Johnson chart and a late fifth by the Stuart chart.

This was essentially free money for the Chiefs. They were likely to fill their left tackle spot at 31 and were able to do the exact same thing at 32 by taking Josh Simmons from Ohio State. Philadelphia took linebacker Jihaad Campbell; the analysts on ESPN suggested that the Eagles were probably just trying to block another team from moving up and were willing to pay a fifth-round pick to do so.

Philly doesn't lose much here, and the Chiefs don't gain much, but it was a small win for Kansas City, the type of move winning franchises make.