5 Things we Know After the Opening NFL Games: Saquon Barkley, Lamar Jackson, Isaiah Likely and More
A handful of topics that stand out after the first two games of 2024.
It’s tough to tell what’s real over the course of an NFL season. With only 17 games, randomness plays a huge part in how successful a team is in any given year. Rather than in baseball where teams have 162 chances to prove their skill, NFL teams get very few opportunities to come out ahead in 50/50 propositions.
Still, we think we know everything after every week of football. Every big win means that your team is destined for glory, and every heartbreaking loss dooms those respective squads to the depths of the league. Several teams are going to lose in Week 1, be written off by a population of their fans, then go on to the playoffs. We may have already seen one or two of those teams before the weekend even started.
Let’s run through five things we know after just two games of the 2024 season. Of course, we don’t “know” all these things for sure, but these are five early impressions after seeing four potential playoff teams square off in two close contests.
The Kansas City defense is still for real
Lamar Jackson had a great fantasy day. His 273 passing yards (with a touchdown) and 122 rushing yards add up to around 27 fantasy points (25 with a lost fumble thrown in). His real day wasn’t nearly as effective, though, as Jackson struggled to consistently connect with his receivers while being chased by defenders most of the game.
Jackson averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt; he finished below that number only four times last season. He was at 7.4 in the AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs. Gaining 122 yards on 16 carries is fantastic, but we know about Jackson’s skill on the ground: his passing prowess is where we’re looking for improvement from the reigning MVP.
This is more about praising the defense than hammering the quarterback, though. Kansas City had one of the best defenses in the league last season, ranking second in points and yards allowed per game and fourth in passing yards allowed per game. Most of the major pieces are back, minus cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, who was traded to Tennessee. This defense is set up to succeed.
They only recorded one sack, but the Chiefs had Jackson on the move all game, forcing him to make plays rather than dictate the offensive pace. KC will make lesser quarterbacks look like college freshmen forced into action; it’s a credit to Jackson’s talent that he was able to produce as well as he did.
Expect Jackson to continue as a top-five fantasy quarterback, but beware of every fantasy player facing the Chiefs moving forward.
Isaiah Likely might be THE guy instead of Mark Andrews
When the Ravens punted to the Chiefs with 8:24 left in the third quarter, I texted my friend who owns Mark Andrews in his fantasy league: “5 targets for Likely, 1 for Andrews.” I won’t share how he responded, but the letter "F" was involved at least once.
Likely ended up with nine receptions on 12 targets, gaining 111 yards and scoring a nifty touchdown. Andrews caught both of his targets for 14 yards. I was down on Andrews both in fantasy drafts and heading into this week, but it was more about his role and the defense they were facing.
Likely looked like the team’s top option at times and clearly had the biggest impact in the opening game. It’s only one game, and Kansas City has a stout defense, as we talked about above. It will take multiple weeks before we know what to really expect from this team.
The younger Baltimore tight end is going to be a major waiver addition, though, with hopes he can be what Andrews was supposed to be: a top-three fantasy tight end. The most likely outcome is that Likely comes back to Earth and Andrews has some better days, but don’t be surprised if Likely outplays his veteran teammate more in the coming weeks.
For fantasy purposes, I’m not opposed to picking up Likely if you’re short at tight end, but don’t expect him to play like this every week. Andrews is still there to steal work, and Jackson usually won’t throw 41 passes to rack up numbers.
Xavier Worthy is part of the solution
Buffalo traded down to No. 32 in the first round of the draft and allowed the Chiefs to move up to No. 28 to take Worthy, the man who set the NFL Combine record for the fastest 40-yard dash. Some chastised the Bills for handing such a weapon to their conference foe and the back-to-back Super Bowl champions, especially because Kansas City’s weakest position was probably receiver.
That’s more of a fun story than a reality, though. If Worthy were a guaranteed future star, he would have been picked way higher than 28th. Four other receivers were chosen before Worthy, and that doesn’t mean all those players will be better, but he wasn’t seen as a can’t-miss prospect despite his speedy accolades. Speed kills; a lot of burners have failed at the professional level, though.
All that said: What a start for Worthy! He only touched the ball three times (one run, two catches) but gained 68 yards and scored twice. Kansas City likes trick plays and misdirection, which set up Worthy’s rushing touchdown. He will get the ball in space and be able to use that quickness thanks to creative play calling.
Rashee Rice will continue to be the most targeted wide receiver, but Worthy will surely be included in the gameplan after making such an impact in his first game. He’s probably in the WR3/flex conversation nearly every week.
The Packers belong among the best in the NFC
Green Bay was a sexy underdog pick coming into the season as a team that could surprise everyone with a run to the Super Bowl. Quarterback Jordan Love looked good all through 2023, and a young, deep roster that won a playoff game was returning to build upon early success.
Things don’t look too different after one game. The Pack was just a few bounces away from winning a game against a team that was in the Super Bowl two years ago. The 34-29 score reflects how both offenses were able to move the ball, but points also added up because each defense was able to create one or more big turnovers that led to points.
The Packers gained over 400 yards of total offense and hung with a contender for 60 minutes. Other than winning the game, Green Bay couldn’t have done much more to prove they belong with the best. Those who made preseason bets on Green Bay should be happy with what they saw (though a victory obviously would have helped).
A late injury to Love is concerning. He was able to get up and walk off with help, but they will surely run tests to see if there was any damage. Philadelphia lineman Jalen Carter rolled up on Love’s foot and ankle, causing him to go down in pain. If he’s out for any extended length of time, the Packers will see their playoff chances drop significantly.
Saquon Barkley continues the tradition of top fantasy running backs in Philadelphia, but super-charged
Over the past two seasons, the Eagles got top-20 PPR running back efforts from Miles Sanders and D'Andre Swift. Those guys haven’t been impactful otherwise, as Sanders became a below-average back after heading to the Panthers and Swift was never the top guy in Detroit before joining Philly last year.
With middling backs becoming fantasy regulars in a great running game, Barkley brought dreams of phenomenal fantasy work with a great offensive line and a running quarterback next to him. So far, so good. Barkley ran for 109 yards and two touchdowns and added 23 yards and another score in the air.
Barkley was a first-round fantasy pick, so it’s not a surprise to see him do well. Barkley has the upside of the top back in fantasy, though, and proved it here against a good defense.
The Eagles are going to be fantasy friendly all year, putting up plenty of yards and points (they might give up a lot too). Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert will be on the fantasy radar every week, but their running back might be the cream of the crop.
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