Fantasy Football Week 1 Tight End Start/Sit: Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews and More

Three players to start and three to consider sitting in Week 1.

Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL season! It’s the best time of year; forget Christmas and every other holiday, and keep your birthdays, anniversaries and remembrances. The start of football brings new life.

We’re beginning the weekly process of deciding who to start and sit, feverishly pouring over numbers for an entire week before probably still making the wrong decision. Tight end is often the toughest position at which to find value, with less players gaining less yards and producing less fantasy points than any other offensive position.

Matchups mean even more when less points are available, as two extra fantasy points means more about player ranking than at RB or WR. Let’s look at three players to start and three to consider benching in Week 1.

Fantasy points allowed are from Pro Football Reference with guidance from our own FantasySP measures, and 2023 pass yards per game and per attempt are from Team Rankings.

Looking for start/sit help? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Who Should I Start tool.

Start

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals

If you drafted Kincaid, you’re probably starting him every week. This is more about his upside both this season and in Week 1. I wrote often in the offseason about expecting Kincaid to absorb at least some of the WR1 role vacated by Stefon Diggs (and WR2 Gabe Davis).

Keon Coleman, the 33rd overall pick, will be expected to produce early, and there are a few veterans around, but Kincaid might have the most upside of any of them this season. After only seeing double-digit targets once last year, Kincaid might reach that mark semi-regularly this year.

The Cardinals have a suddenly exciting offense after Kyler Murray looked like himself in last season’s return and Marvin Harrison Jr. was drafted fourth overall. That fervor doesn’t extend to the defense, however, as the talent level is lower, and the team has already sustained several injuries that will take away valuable contributors for the first month or more.

Arizona was closer to the middle in pass yards per game allowed last season, but that was partly a product of teams running a lot while they were beating the Cardinals. They allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt, and tight ends did as much damage as anyone; the Cards tied for second-most touchdowns allowed to the position.

With his opportunity for more volume and Arizona’s struggles stopping the pass, Kincaid is set up well to have a strong start to the season. He’s here because I see TE1 upside in Week 1.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati quietly became one of the worst defenses in the league last season. After multiple offseasons watching talent walking out the door, the young replacements taken early in the draft were not ready to pick up the slack.

Cam Taylor-Britt, Jordan Battle, Dax Hill and DJ Turner were all drafted within the first three rounds in either 2022 or 2023. That’s a group the team is surely expecting more from this season and into the future. Young players without NFL experience, even those who become successful, can often struggle their first few years, and Cincinnati felt the pain of so many expected contributors trying to find their footing at once.

The Bengals allowed the most passing yards per attempt, fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends and fifth-most passing yards per game last year. Even with expected improvement, this unit should be below average and able to be targeted with fantasy players.

Henry returned to the Patriots before free agency started, bringing back maybe their surest pair of hands on an underwhelming offense. No New England receiver was drafted in many 10-team fantasy leagues; that’s partly a product of the players but also a statement on the quarterback play of the Pats.

Jacoby Brissett won the starting job despite coach Jerod Mayo saying he was outplayed by Drake Maye. The veteran has a reputation for taking care of the ball and making safe plays but not producing explosive ones; that sounds like a recipe for throwing to the tight end. Brissett started essentially the whole season three years: 2017 and 2019 for the Colts and 2022 in Cleveland.

• 2017: TE Jack Doyle led the team with 80 receptions, tied for the team lead with four touchdowns and was second with 690 yards
• 2019: Doyle’s 43 receptions were two shy of the team lead, and he was third in yards (448) and touchdowns (four)
• 2022: David Njoku was third on the team with 58 receptions and 628 yards and second with four touchdowns

None of those numbers are outstanding, but it’s solid work at a position where it’s sometimes hard to find production. Henry’s ranks on the Patriots last year: third in receptions (42; Ezekiel Elliott was first with 51, interestingly enough), second in yards (419) and first in touchdowns (six).

Against a possibly reeling defense with a quarterback likely to involve his tight end, Henry is a nice streaming player if you’re waiting on T.J. Hockenson or want to sit one of the guys listed in the next section.

Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ertz might be done. He played just seven games last season, catching 27 passes for 187 yards. He was injured then released by the Cardinals when Trey McBride showed he was ready to take over. I’m not counting on Ertz to be an impactful fantasy option this year, especially the deeper we get into the season; younger players, like rookie Ben Sinnott, will likely steal snaps as the weeks go on.

In Week 1, though, Ertz is in line to start as a healthy player with a rookie quarterback. We like to think first-year QBs target their tight ends more often, but a few studies haven’t really shown that play out in the numbers. In Washington’s case, it’s more about the lack of receiving options around the tight end.

Terry McLaurin is a true WR1 who has topped 1,000 yards every year except his rookie season, when he was over 900. There’s not much else as far as proven pass-catching talent, though, leaving the seasoned Ertz as probably one of the safest options. Austin Ekeler could cut into that work, but Ertz will have a role.

The matchup is what really stands out here. Tampa Bay has a good roster, especially considering that many expected them to tear things down once Tom Brady left town. There are stars on the defense, but they are susceptible to giving up yards and points.

The Bucs gave up the fourth-most passing yards per game, eighth-most yards per attempt and third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends last year. They were stout against the run but couldn’t stop teams through the air; not much looks different on this defense from last season.

Sit

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

I recently talked about tight ends in their fantasy tiers and detailed why I’m not in on Andrews as a star. He’s only had one big year (2021), and it came when Lamar Jackson missed a large portion of the season. I’ve used this stat a few times:

• Andrews in 2021 per-game with Jackson: 5.1 receptions, 67.1 yards, 0.45 touchdowns
• Without Jackson (six games): 8.5 receptions, 103.8 yards, 0.67 touchdowns

While he has shown big skill, Andrews has been better in name than actual production for much of his career. He’s not a bad player, but he’s often way over-drafted in fantasy.

Kansas City had one of the best defenses in the league last season. That unit carried them to the Super Bowl at times when the Chiefs were struggling on offense and being let down by the wide receivers. Most of the major players are back.

L'Jarius Sneed is a big loss at cornerback, but Trent McDuffie is a CB1, Chris Jones is still wreaking havoc on the defensive line and renowned defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is back calling the plays.

KC was fourth in passing yards allowed per game, third in yards per attempt and fifth in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. The Chiefs may go back to the Super Bowl because of their defense as much as Patrick Mahomes.

Andrews is set up to start the season slow. He will have big weeks, but Week 1 is unlikely to be one of them.

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills

McBride is THE major pick to break out at tight end; everyone seems to see him the way I see Kincaid. He really came on last year when Murray returned from injury:

• 9 games without Murray: 28 receptions, 287 yards, 1 touchdown
• 8 games with Murray: 53 receptions, 538 yards, 2 touchdowns

With a full offseason working with his quarterback and another year of experience, it makes sense to expect McBride to have a big season. It just might take a week to kick in.

Buffalo was seventh in passing yards per game allowed and sixth in yards per attempt in 2023. They allowed the fourth-least fantasy points per game to tight ends. Like Kansas City, the Bills had a high-profile offense that was propelled at times by their great defense.

It’s tempting to think that the injury to Matt Milano will affect the team compared to last year’s performance, but Milano also missed all but five games in 2023, so they aren’t necessarily hinging on his sustained performance.

McBride has obvious appeal and is in line to be a top-10 tight end this sesaon, but Buffalo isn’t the team to mess with.

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

This is about three things: Johnson, the Panthers and Taysom Hill. Johnson had over 500 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022, making him TE8 in standard and TE15 in PPR. There was buzz around him last season, but Johnson failed to live up to the same level of play and missed three games. He’s middling at best and only a deep streamer most weeks.

His teammate Hill plays a different position than Johnson. They are both listed as tight ends, but Hill throws and runs the ball as much as he catches it, making him an all-around performer. Even so, he cuts into Johnson’s work by lining up as a tight end at times.

While the Panthers were fairly putrid last season, they were better defending the pass. It wasn’t just because teams were only running on them, either: While they were third in passing yards per game allowed, the Panthers were also seventh in yards per attempt, mixing good quantity and quality. Specific to the position, Carolina was 10th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.

Johnson is on the lower end of the fantasy spectrum anyway, but this isn’t a week to consider him. It’s easy to look at the Panthers and think they are prime for the pickings, but the defense is a little better, and the team made moves to upgrade both the offense and defense this offseason. While they’re probably not playoff contenders, Carolina will be much more competitive this season.

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