Playoff Preview: AFC Championship Game Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
We are now down to the final four and it’s fair to say that the two best teams in each conference made it to their respective Conference Championship games. We have the #1 seed Kansas City Chiefs hosting the #3 seeded Cincinnati Bengals. Last week we saw the Chiefs knock off the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Bengals dismantled the Buffalo Bills. This should be a fun game headlined by two of the best young quarterbacks in the league Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow armed with some of the league’s most elite weapons.
AFC Conference Championship Best Bets
This matchup is about as good as any of us could hope for this Sunday. It has all the ingredients for a classic. Two red-hot teams led by potential generational quarterbacks and perhaps the two best QBs in the league with elite skill players and high-end defenses. The only potential blemish in this game is the fact that Mahomes will be playing through a high-ankle sprain. An injury that could potentially swing this game in the Bengals’ favor.
When 100% healthy Mahomes is undoubtedly the best quarterback in the NFL. If anyone tells you anything different, they are wrong. Unfortunately, he’s not fully healthy and we can’t know how that will impact his play, but it does sound like he’ll be out there. We can guarantee it will limit his mobility, but if anyone is good enough to overcome limitations it’s him.
He will be taking on a defense that ranks 16th in the NFL, but sixth in points allowed per game. They are also sixth in the league with a plus-six turnover differential. They have been playing even better in the second half of the year improving their coverage and getting more pressure on the quarterback. Still, their rush defense is the strength of their D as it ranks seventh in the NFL, and their pass defense just 23rd. Usually, a tough rush defense isn’t a huge issue for the Chiefs, however, it could have a bigger impact than usual as Kansas City will likely try to establish the run to buy Mahomes more time due to his lack of mobility and escapability thanks to his ankle injury. Nevertheless, slowing down this Chiefs’ offense will be no easy task and we don’t expect the Bengals to do to them what they did to Josh Allen and the Bills.
Burrow won’t have an easy task either even with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon at his disposal. The Chiefs’ defense has quietly been much improved this year. It’s easily the best defense Mahomes has ever had and defensive lineman Chris Jones is even a Defensive Player of the Year finalist. They rank 11th in the league and 16th in points against. Their rush defense is the strength of the D ranking seventh in the league and their pass defense 18th. Turnovers haven’t been a strength, however, as they are at negative three on the season. While the numbers are close we still give the edge to the Bengals’ defense overall.
Despite the superior overall talent at the skill positions on the Bengals’ offense, the edge on that side of the ball does not go to Cincy. Kansas City finished the season ranking first on offense in yards and scoring with the top passing attack in the league. Their rushing attack ranks just 20th, but the usage of tight end Travis Kelce and Jerick McKinnon in the passing attack helps negate that deficiency. The Bengals are no slouches in their own right with the eight ranked offense in yards and seventh in scoring. However, their fifth-ranked passing attack is elite, but their 29th-ranked rushing attack has been an issue at times. When they are at their best Joe Mixon is picking up yards like we saw last week. That won’t be as easy against the Chiefs. The big difference between these two offenses is Mahomes and the O-line. Even if Burrow is the second-best QB in the league there is a huge gap between these two.
In the end, our money is on the best player in the league and perhaps the best quarterback to enter the league in the past two decades or so. Mahomes is a special player and has a top-five all-time pass-catching tight end to throw to. Top five may even be selling him short. This game could go either way, nonetheless, you won’t find us betting against Mahomes even if he is hobbled.
The Picks
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -1 (-115)
Over/Under: Over 48 (-110)
Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs (-115)
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Player Props of the Night
Prop #1: Isiah Pacheco, Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-135)
Pacheco looks like he’s taken back over as the clear RB1 in this offense and has looked great as of late. Last week he dominated the Jags’ 12th-ranked rushing attack carrying the ball 12 times for 95 yards and a ridiculous 7.9 yards per carry. He has shown that the Chiefs have found a gem and he will be the running back of the future for this team. We expect a similar game script in this one and the Chiefs will likely run even more to ease some of the workload from Mahomes.
According to our NFL Over/Under Prop Bet Rankings tool, he has hit the over on his rushing yards prop in 64 % of his games this season. That number jumps to 67% at home.
Prop #2: Kadarius Toney, Over 3.5 Receptions (+100)
McKinnon shockingly looks like an afterthought all of a sudden being seldom used and the reason appears to be a healthy Toney. He’s as dangerous a weapon in space as there is in the league when he can stay on the field. After catching just 10 passes for the rest of the season, he has caught 11 passes in the past three games including five last week. He is playing the role of the pass-catching running back on short dump-offs. There is no reason to believe this trend won’t continue this week. Especially with Mahomes banged up and looking to get the ball out even quicker than usual. On top of being the screen and dump-off guy, Toney has the talent to be the WR1 in Kansas City and could make more plays downfield as well.
Prop #3: Chris Jones, Over 0.75 Sacks (-115)
If you are betting on Jones to get a sack you are going to win most of the time. We aren’t going to overcomplicate this one for you because it’s quite simple. To finish the season, he got to the quarterback in 10 of his last 11 games. During that span, he sacked the QB 13.5 times with a total of 15.5 sacks on the season in just 15 games. He will be going up against Burrow who was sacked 41 times this season which was sixth-most on the season.
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