NFL Wild Card Round Playoff Preview: New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
In one of the non-divisional battles this Wild Card Weekend, we have the New York Football Giants (9-7-1) visiting the NFC North Champion Minnesota Vikings (13-4). The Giants have lost five of their last eight, but they’re above .500 on the road this year and played the Vikings within three points in their Week 15 matchup. Of all the games this weekend, I think this one might have the most upset potential.
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Despite coming into the season with a new coach, a coming-off-injury running back, and what many considered to be a lame-duck quarterback, the Giants surprised pretty much everyone besides their most die-hard fans and put together a winning season. As mentioned, they’ve limped into the playoffs after a strong start, but they’ve played smart football all year and (in my humble opinion) have the coaching advantage this week with Brian Daboll on their sideline.
Daniel Jones put together a solid season with 3,205 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 708 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns, and just nine total turnovers on the year. He, in the process, also may have played himself into another season in New York. He’s dealt with a very lackluster (and rotating) supporting cast of wide receivers but has had a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley on his side who put up 1,312 rushing yards, 338 receiving yards, and 10 total touchdowns on his way to a potential Comeback Player of the Year award.
Similar to the Giants, the Vikings put together a surprising season and highly exceeded expectations. Many had them as a potential playoff contender, but not so much a division winner. Kirk Cousins hung 4,547 passing yards on the board (though he did come close to leading the league with 14 interceptions), and Justin Jefferson put up an otherworldly season with 128 receptions for 1,809 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns.
After the Vikings beat the Giants 27-24 three weeks ago on the strength of a late field goal, I expect this one to be close. The Giants had the opportunity to rest most of their starters last week, and I’m curious to see what Brian Daboll has up his sleeve. Neither team has a fantastic defense (though neither defense is horrible) so I think we’ll see some points put up like we did in their last meeting. I think the Vikings will ultimately pull this one out at home in a high(ish)-scoring affair. I don’t feel as strongly on my against-the-spread pick here, but I do very much like the over with the Vikings pulling out a one-score win.
The Picks
Spread: Minnesota Vikings -3 (-105)
Over/Under: Over 48.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Minnesota Vikings (-157)
Player Props of the Night
Prop #1: Saquon Barkley, Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
As I mentioned, the Giants don’t have anything resembling an All-Pro receiving option and they’re going to need to rely upon their best player. The Vikings have allowed over 123 rushing yards per game, so that bodes well for Mr. Barkley this week. While Daniel Jones will eat up some of the Giants rushing yards, New York doesn’t really give the ball to anyone else in their backfield. Our Prop Bet Tool has Barkley projected for 82.4 rushing yards this week (and I personally think that might even be a little low) so the robot is on our side here too!
Prop #2: Justin Jefferson, Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Speaking of robots, this is our Prop Bet Tool’s favorite prop in this game. I know 91.5 sounds high, but this is Justin Jefferson we’re talking about. The Vikings are going to pepper him with targets (he saw totals of 15, 16, and 16) in Weeks 14-16, and he went over this total in 11 games this season. The Giants passing defense is decent (about middle-of-the-road statistically), but they don’t have a lockdown corner, which means Jefferson should be able to do damage.
Prop #3: Adam Thielen, Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
This one might be a little riskier, but I’m looking at this (low) total and salivating. I understand why it’s so low because Thielen has a grand total of four receptions in his last three games, but he’s still the Vikings second receiver and saw at least seven targets in nine games this season. At such a low total, I’m happy to bank on him seeing at least five or six targets – and that should be enough to surpass this total.
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