NFL Wild Card Round Playoff Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
We have yet another divisional matchup in the Wild Card round to kick off the 2023 playoffs. The Baltimore Ravens (10-7) go on the road to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (12-4). The AFC North rivals split their season series and will have their rubber match on Sunday night. They will be facing off for the second time in as many weeks and unfortunately, it looks like the Ravens will once again be without their star quarterback Lamar Jackson. However, they will at least have their QB2 Tyler Huntley starting this week after giving Anthony Brown a start last week in a meaningless game. The Bengals will look to continue rolling like they have been for months now.
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Even with their former MVP beating the Bengals would be a tall task for the Ravens. With him sidelined it almost feels impossible. They have a shot because Huntley is a capable backup, and they have the ability to run the ball. Plus the defense has vastly improved over the back half of the year since getting healthy and adding stud linebacker Roquan Smith at the trade deadline. Still, despite all that, it’s still a long shot for them to pull this game out without Jackson calling the plays.
The Bengals on the other hand are healthy and rolling. After starting the season off 0-2, they’ve lost two games all season since and the last time they lost was on Halloween. With their defense playing well and all their weapons on offense healthy, there is no reason to believe they won’t continue to roll this week. Nevertheless, the game should be competitive. AFC North games are always hard-fought games, and this shouldn’t be an exception. The Ravens will hang tough, but likely fall in the end.
The Bengals are just too much for them with a defense ranking sixth in points per game and an offense that ranks seventh in points per game. They have a top-five passing attack to match up against the Ravens’ 26th-ranked pass defense. Cincy also has the seventh-ranked rush defense to help slow down the Ravens’ rushing attack which will have to be their primary game plan heading into this one.
The Ravens’ only hope of pulling this one out is winning the turnover battle and running the ball with success. The good news is despite the tough matchup they do have the second-ranked rushing attack in the NFL. They also are a +4 in the turnover battle despite struggling with backup QBs the past five games. While the Bengals actually have a +7-turnover differential, Joe Burrow does at times get reckless and turn the ball over. We don’t expect that to happen this week, but the Ravens will need it to happen to win.
It's a shame we will be missing Lamar and Tua this week in the AFC playoffs because what could have been two incredible games really lost a lot of their excitement. Nonetheless, we give the Ravens much more of a fighting chance than we did the Dolphins.
The Picks:
Spread: Baltimore Ravens +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Cincinnati Bengals (-460)
Player Props of the Night
Prop #1: JK Dobbins, Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
The Ravens are going to rely on Dobbins in this game to carry them. Since returning from injury in December he has done just that. In the four games since returning, he has rushed for 397 yards which is 99.25 yards per game. However, he did not suit up last week against Cincy because the Ravens were resting some key players. It seems unlikely that Dobbins could finish this game without seeing at least 15 carries and that should be more than enough to put him over this pedestrian line.
According to our NFL Over/Under Prop Bet Rankings tool, since returning from injury Dobbins has hit the over for his rushing yards prop 67% of the time. It also shows how much work he’s been getting as he’s topped his rushing attempts prop 100% of the time.
Prop #2: Trenton Irwin, Over 5.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
This is a bizarre line and it’s hard to make much sense of it. Irwin has become an important weapon for Burrow and this line does not represent that. In his last seven games, he has only failed to receive multiple targets in a game one time, and he still took that one target for 12 yards. He is averaging more than 25 yards per game this season and 15.4 yards per reception. In 11 career games, he has only failed to top this number one time and in that game, he caught one pass for five yards. He will catch a pass in this game as he has in every game he’s played wide receiver in and he will get more than five yards.
Prop #3: Marcus Williams, Over 4.5 Tackles + Assists (-140)
Williams missed a huge chunk of this season with a broken wrist but has played at an All-Pro level when healthy. If you exclude the game he got injured in and the game he returned in because of a reduced snap count this line looks like a home run. Other than those two games he’s cleared this bar in six of eight games averaging seven tackles per game. He’s made 16 tackles over the past two games including seven last week against these same Bengals. There is a good chance his tackle total is closer to 10 than five in this game.
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