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28
25
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20
28
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26
33
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17
23
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20
16
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15
30
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10
31
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33
40
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24
17

Week 12 Thanksgiving Day NFL Betting Preview: Point Spreads, Totals, Props, Predictions

Mark Morales-Smith Nov 23rd 5:27 AM EST.

It’s Thanksgiving week so we have a special three-game Thanksgiving preview for you today. We let you know all you need to know about all three games so you can win some money this holiday. The day will start off with the Detroit Lions (4-6) hosting the Buffalo Bills(7-3) followed by the New York Giants (7-3) heading to Texas to take on the Dallas Cowboys (7-3) and we wrap up the night with the New England Patriots (6-4) at the Minnesota Vikings (8-2). This should be a great day and a great slate of games. Hopefully, these bets give you something to be thankful for.

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Week 12 Thanksgiving Day Best Bets

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions +10 (-115)

At first glance, this looks like a laugher with the juggernaut Bills headed to Detroit to give them their annual Turkey Day beatdown. However, the Lions have been red-hot winning three in a row and the Bills have been sputtering a bit lately losing two of their last three and struggling a bit against the lowly Cleveland Browns. Conversely, the Lions have knocked off the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, and New York Giants in the past three games. The Bears and Giants they knocked off on the road.

This should be a shootout. Both teams have explosive offenses that can put up points in bunches. The defense is where we start to see where this game can get lopsided. The Bills’ defense has fallen off significantly but is still an above-average group. The Lions’ defense is atrocious and is incapable of stopping anyone other than Aaron Rodgers.

This game has a big point spread and the biggest over/under of the week by 6.5 points. Vegas expects this game to be a high-scoring blowout. We don’t think it plays out like that. While we do expect the Bills to win and perhaps even cover, this should be a competitive game. This game should be within the margin of the point spread into the fourth quarter. Then it’s a matter of whether or not the Bills can pull away late or the Lions can keep up.

  • The Pick: Buffalo Bills, -10 (-105)
  • Over/Under: Over 54 (-110)
  • Top Prop: Devin Singletary Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys -9.5 (-110)

The Week 12 Dallas Cowboys are the Week 11 Green Bay Packers. Don’t get us wrong, the Cowboys are much better than Green Bay, however, one big win does not a season make. The Packers knocked off the Cowboys in Week 10 everyone somehow suddenly thought they should be favorites against the Titans. Now the Cowboys beat down Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings and people are pretending they didn’t lose to the Packers the week before. The point spread in this game is disrespectful, but we’ll get back to that in a bit.

The Cowboys are a very good team with a strong defense, but it’s time to stop pretending they’re special. On the other hand, the Giants may be the most disrespected team in the league. It’s time to stop pretending they are 7-3 by accident. Not only do the Giants have the same record as Dallas, but they’ve also beaten the Titans, Ravens, and Seahawks along the way. This is a much closer matchup than the experts are giving it credit for.

The Cowboys should win this game at home, however, it’s a tough sell to give the Giants 9.5 points against an NFC division rival. This is the same reason we took the Redskins against the Eagles a few weeks back and this is a much closer matchup. As we said, the Cowboys should win, nonetheless, no one should be shocked if the Giants pull off the upset here.

  • The Pick: New York Giants, +9.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Under 45.5 (-110)
  • Top Prop: Darius Slayton Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

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New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-115)

That brings us to our nightcap. We have the Vikings coming off a drubbing at home from the Cowboys taking on the Patriots who find themselves currently locked into a playoff spot after winning five of their last six games, and sneaking one out against the Jets and a woeful Zach Wilson last week. This is a solid matchup and should be a fun way to close out the night.

There is one x-factor in this game, and you had to know this was coming, it’s prime time Kirk Cousins going up against one of the best defenses in the league. Cousins’ prime-time record currently sits at 10-18. This shouldn’t be a thing to be taken seriously, but how can you not at this point? We have seen him look so dreadful when the lights are the brightest. This just seems to happen to certain guys.

Cousins’ nighttime struggles aside, this is an excellent matchup. It’s strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness on both sides of the ball. The Minnesota high-powered offense will look to bounce back this week and get something going against a brutal Patriots’ defense that will almost certainly slow them down. On the other side of the ball, the noodle-armed Mac Jones will look to get anything going against a lackluster Vikings’ defense.

We have been watching football too long though to give points to Bill Belichick in a prime-time game against Cousins. It’s just not a smart play. If we are going down with the ship then so be it. Belichick’s defense is a ship I’m willing to go down with. Granted, we would be much more comfortable if Mac Jones wasn’t co-captain of the said ship because he’s horrendous as well. Still, the Patriots should be able to create turnovers and run all over the Vikings’ D.

  • The Pick: New England Patriots +2.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110)
  • Top Prop: Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 Interceptions (-105)


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