Week 4 NFL Expert Player Props: Tom Brady To Bounce Back?
It’s been a really trying week with the Hurricane, but fantasy football prop betting takes no break for anyone—even Dr. Roto!
Here are my favorite prop bets at each of the core four positions for Week 4 of the NFL season.
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady OVER 273.5 passing yards
Analysis: Brady has burned me once this season, but I am not giving up on the GOAT just yet. The Chiefs have a poor pass defense and Brady might have a full cadre of his receivers back.
Lamar Jackson UNDER 229.5 passing yards
Analysis: This one pains me to write, but the Bills defense will devise ways to keep Jackson in the pocket where he is more apt to make mistakes. I think he breaks 200 passing yards, but those extra 29.5 feel a bit heavy.
Running Backs
JK Dobbins OVER 35.5 rushing yards
Analysis: Being overlooked in this matchup is Dobbins. He got in a full practice on Thursday and the Ravens know that they will need Dobbins to keep Josh Allen off the field and to keep the Bills defense from keying in on Jackson. This might be one of my favorite plays of the week.
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Michael Carter OVER 12.5 receiving yards
Analysis: Last week Carter burned many prop bettors who thought that he and not Breece Hall would have the big day against the Bengals. And while I think the Jets are going to ramp up Hall’s touches, 12.5 receiving yards feels like two plays from Carter which should be a relatively easy prop to hit considering there should be a decent number of plays from both offenses this week.
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Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf OVER 59.5 receiving yards
Analysis: Last week was a Tyler Lockett week, ergo using revers NFL psychology, this should be the DK Metcalf week we have been waiting for. Geno Smith’s prop is 250 passing yards. If he is going to get anywhere close to that number, it will have to be from both Metcalf and Lockett getting 60+.
Chase Claypool OVER 38.5 receiving yards
Analysis: Over the course of the season I will start to pick on certain defensive players who I know are just sieves. Jets slot CB Michael Carter is above average in run support but he is weaker in pass coverage. We took advantage of that in Week 3 with Tyler Boyd; let’s go back to the well with Claypool in Week 4.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller OVER 47.5 receiving yards
Analysis: The Broncos have let up 18 receptions and 2 TDs to opposing tight ends this season. Waller has 34 targets and 3 TDs in the first three games of the season. Right there alone gives me reason to support this prop. Add to it the fact that Hunter Renfrow will likely be out and the betting public will be chasing Mack Hollins’ numbers from Week 3 gives me even more reason to take Waller this week.
Mark Andrews UNDER 63.5 receiving yards
Analysis: Admittedly it is hard for me to go against Andrews who has been simply sensational to start the season, but the Bills defense has only let up 10 catches for 87 yards to opposing tight ends in the past three weeks. This has been against competent names like Higbee, Hooper, and Gesicki, not Bellinger, Mundt, and Moreau. While I don’t expect Andrews to get shut out, I do think him getting over 63.5 yards seems more unlikely than not.
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