Quarterback ADP Report: Should Fantasy Football Owners Fade Josh Allen?
Josh Allen seemingly leapfrogged Patrick Mahomes and emerged as the top quarterback in all of fantasy football with an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 21.17.
Last week, we took a look at some of the most valuable quarterbacks to target based on ADP. We spoke about how veterans Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Derek Carr are some of the most promising passers heading into 2022 but aren’t expected to be drafted before the eighth round of 12-team fantasy football drafts. Today, we’ll take a look at some of the NFL’s best quarterbacks from a fantasy point of view. However, these signal-callers are being drafted far too early.
Though Josh Allen is potentially the best quarterback in the league, he shouldn’t be selected within the first 25 picks. Likewise, 2019 MVP winner Lamar Jackson is expected to be drafted as early as the fourth round but his production has declined substantially. Last season, Jackson threw for 16 touchdowns and 13 interceptions before suffering a season-ending injury. This offseason, the Ravens lost their best deep-ball threat by sending Marquise Brown to the Cardinals. Coming off an injury without your best weapon is a difficult thing to do but if anyone can, it's Jackson. Still, I'd be wary of drafting him. Now, let's take a look at which quarterbacks fantasy owners shouldn't reach for based on Average Draft Positions (ADP).
Please Note: These ADPs are based on PPR formats.
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QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (ADP: 21.08)
Here at Fantasy SP, we generally don’t think selecting a quarterback in the early rounds is a good strategy, particularly in PPR formats. At the moment, Allen is expected to be drafted in the late-second round. Despite having a phenomenal supporting cast and a superstar receiver in Stefon Diggs, I wouldn't touch Allen until the late-third round or early fourth round.
Allen actually had fewer passing yards and passing touchdowns last season than veterans such as Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford. Allen finished the season with 4,407 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. However, Allen rushed for 763 yards (finishing behind only Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts) and an additional six trips to the end zone. Those rushing stats made a massive difference as Allen is the consensus top quarterback on the board after finishing as the QB1 in all fantasy formats last season. Not to mention, he ranked within the top 10 in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and deep ball completion percentage, plus he was second in air yards per game. We aren't doubting Allen's talent, we are doubting his draft capital.
This offseason, the Bills got rid of wideouts Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley. However, the team brought in Jamison Crowder who will join Gabriel Davis as the Bills' second and third best options at the wide receiver position behind Stefon Diggs. Currently, the Bills have the eighth-highest ranked wide receiver corps in the league heading into 2022 according to PFF. Allen's weapons are slightly worse than they were last year but Crowder could make some serious noise out of the slot as he attempts to fill Beasley's void. Allen will be the best quarterback that Crowder has ever caught passes from. Crowder could be a late-round sleeper himself.
The Bills also drafted James Cook, which means Buffalo is likely going to feed the rookie running back the rock at some point. Allen can't sustain last year's numbers when he's constantly taking off beyond the line of scrimmage with 11 bigger guys attempting to tackle him. We'll still see Allen run the football but I don't expect it to be nearly as often due to the risk of injury. "Yeah, we want to evolve," said head coach Sean McDermott when asked about Allen's development, specifically regarding the amount of time he takes to the run.
Josh Allen’s offensive weapons didn’t worsen but perhaps improved this offseason with the addition of Crowder and O.J. Howard at the tight end position. Still, no quarterback should be drafted as high as the second round. While the argument could be made for Josh Allen to be selected in the late third or early fourth round, it would be irresponsible to select him within the first 25 selections of fantasy football drafts this year (unless you participate in a SuperFlex league).
The biggest concern outside of health is Allen's accuracy. Ever since entering the NFL, Allen has had issues with hitting his targets. He seemed to finally put it all together in 2020 when he completed 69.2% of his pass attempts. Last year, he only converted 63.3% of his throws. Now that he needs to develop chemistry with some new teammates, there is some risk in drafting Allen. If he improves his accuracy, the sky is the limit. That said, draft a running back or wide receiver in the first two rounds, not a quarterback!
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QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: 30.35)
Justin Herbert is the second quarterback expected to come off the board in 2022 fantasy football drafts. There is good reason to pick Herbert relatively early in this year’s draft. Herbert was named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2020. That season, he completed 66.6% of his passes and produced 4,336 yards, 31 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions. Last season, Herbert exceeded 5,000 passing yards (second in the NFL) and threw 38 touchdowns (third-most in the NFL) though he did also toss 15 picks.
The Chargers’ top-two wideouts this season are Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Allen has tallied 1,100+ receiving yards and at least six touchdowns in four of the last five seasons, only falling short of 1,000+ yards (992 yards) in 2020 when he missed two games. In addition, Herbert has at his disposal one of the best running backs in the league: Austin Ekeler. Ekeler is the best pass-catching running back in the entire league. He's practically a hybrid RB and WR. Last season, Ekeler caught 70 passes for 647 yards and eight touchdowns, in addition to his 911 yards and 12 touchdowns rushing.
We are by no means telling you that Herbert is a quarterback to be avoided in this year's fantasy draft. However, fantasy owners would have to use their third-round pick to acquire Herbert. Not to mention, Patrick Mahomes' ADP is only a few picks behind Herbert. If you are dead-set on rostering a top-tier quarterback, simply wait until Allen and Herbert are off the board and select Mahomes. Even without Tyreek Hill, Mahomes is more trustworthy than Herbert, has more experience, is better at limiting turnovers, and is the faster runner. As much as I love Herbert, it's hard to envision drafting him in the third round when Mahomes and Joe Burrow are still available.
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 48.31)
The Baltimore Ravens sent Marquise Brown packing this offseason. As a result, the Ravens sustained a major loss at the wide receiver position that they for some reason didn't address. At the moment, Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay are the Ravens’ top two options at receiver heading into the season. Recent rankings by PFF grade the Ravens as the 29th-best receiving corps in the league heading into 2022, ranked below the Jaguars’ and only ranked ahead of the Texans, Packers, and Bears. For Lamar Jackson, he went from having an average to above-average group of pass-catchers over the last few seasons to one of the worst heading into 2022. Yes, he has Mark Andrews at tight end but how many times can Jackson target Andrews before the defense forces Lamar to utilize one of his young wideouts. Last season, Andrews produced 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns in Baltimore. While Andrews could see more production this season as opposed to last, Jackson’s depleted core of wideouts should concern fantasy owners who are targeting Jackson for their 2022 rosters.
Finally, Jackson had his worst season over the last three years. After winning the NFL MVP in 2019 passing for 3,127 yards and 36 touchdowns and rushing for 1,206 yards and seven touchdowns, Jackson missed the Pro Bowl in 2020 in what was a less efficient but still highly productive season. In 2021, Jackson missed five games due to injury and threw for 16 touchdowns for 13 interceptions. Jackson’s regular-season QBR dropped from a whopping 83.0 in 2019, to 67.3 QBR in 2020, and an unimpressive 50.7 QBR last season. There is a pattern emerging that fantasy owners should consider before selecting Jackson. Yes, the majority of his points come from his rushing stats but the Ravens have tons of running backs now that J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are back in the mix.
Jackson has seen a substantial decline in his numbers (which to be fair were unbelievable in 2019) since winning the MVP three seasons ago. In 2021, Jackson had 20 fewer passing touchdowns and seven more interceptions than he did in 2019. Fantasy owners should avoid drafting him unless he's still on the board in the mid-to-late rounds. He's currently being drafted at the end of the fourth or the beginning of the fifth. Do not be misled by his unbelievable MVP sophomore season in 2019. It's unlikely to happen again in 2022.
QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (ADP: 70.80)
In Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers lost his best target in Davante Adams. The duo has all sorts of Green Bay records respectively. Without Adams running routes for Rogers, expect a downtick in production from the future Hall-of-Famer in 2022. According to PFF’s 2022 NFL receiving corps rankings, the Green Bay Packers now have the second-worst group of route-runners in the league. Green Bay’s top receivers heading into 2022 are veterans, Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, alongside Sammy Watkins who was signed from the Buffalo Bills this offseason. They did draft Christian Watson with the third pick in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Given Green Bay's weakness at the position, Watson could emerge as one of Rodgers' go-to targets.
In 2021, Rodgers had another outstanding season. He threw for 4,115 yards while completing 68.9% of his passes. His 37:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio was off the charts. Although he is 38 years old heading into his 18th NFL season, it would be foolish to suggest age could slow him down in 2022. Rather, the Packers’ exponential downgrade to their wide receivers this offseason should make fantasy owners question A-Rog’s fantasy worth in 2022.
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QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 106.00)
In his rookie season last year, Lance only saw the field in six games and finished the season completing just 41 passes (57.7 Cmp%) for 603 yards and five touchdowns. Since Lance barely played his rookie year, the sample size was too small to get a good read on whether or not his game will translate at the next level. He did have a few great moments in 2021 but it is simply not enough to consider drafting Lance over other trustworthy quarterbacks who are being drafted even later. Kirk Cousins (ADP: 117.26), Deshaun Watson (ADP: 129.34), and Tua Tagavailoa (ADP: 133.63) all seem like safer options yet are expected to be drafted at least a round or two later than Lance. The only way Lance will deliver a nice return on your investment is if he uses his legs more than he did his rookie season.
While Lance and not Jimmy Garropolo is expected to be the 49ers starting quarterback next season, San Francisco has yet to officially announce this. This means that even if you were to overlook his minimal production last year, it isn’t certain that Lance starts when the season begins. Except for Watson who is facing a legal battle at the moment, both Cousins and Tagovailoa will be their teams’ starting quarterbacks in 2022. Furthermore, both have produced enough (especially Kirk Cousins) in their time in the NFL for fantasy owners to feel more comfortable picking them as opposed to Lance who played in six games last season but only started in two of them.
Simply due to inexperience, it is safer to avoid drafting Trey Lance, especially as high as the 10th or 11th round. Instead, consider drafting established quarterbacks with more experience and success who are ranked well below Lance in the current QB ADP rankings.
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