Russell Wilson Traded To Broncos, Aaron Rodgers Returns To Green Bay: Fantasy & Betting Fallout
In the same way, many people thought Aaron Rodgers would re-sign in Green Bay, people thought that Russell Wilson would be re-signed by the Seahawks. Yesterday, the football world was shocked when Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos. Today, we’ll take a look at how the big news surrounding Wilson’s trade to Denver significantly weakens the Seahawks’ offense. In contrast, the Green Bay Packers and the Denver Broncos have had themselves a great 24 hours, as the quarterbacks each team signed will greatly improve their offenses and chances at a title.
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Russell Wilson Trade News
The Seattle Seahawks traded superstar veteran quarterback Russell Wilson. The Denver Broncos have agreed to trade quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant, defensive lineman Shelby Harris, two first-round picks (2022 No. 9 overall and 2023), two second-round picks (2022 No. 40 overall and 2023), and a 2022 fifth-round selection to the Seahawks for Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick, sources said.
Wilson has been a Seahawk since he was drafted and led Seattle to a Super Bowl while manning the quarterback position for Pete Carroll. They would have won another Super Bowl if not for boneheaded play calling at the goal line against the New England Patriots when Malcolm Butler intercepted a one-yard slant in the end zone to seal the deal. Had they given Marshawn Lynch the rock, Wilson would be a two-time Super Bowl winner.
Seattle had an awful season last year and struggled to overcome a significant injury to his throwing hand. That said, he’s still among the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL. He will leave DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett behind and join a Broncos team led by new head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Fortunately for Wilson, he will still have elite weapons at his disposal in wide receivers Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and KJ Hamler, plus a promising tight end in Albert Okwuegbunam. And don’t forget that Javonte Williams was one of the top rookie running backs in the NFL last season despite splitting carries with veteran Melvin Gordon.
This offense could be scary good now that Denver is upgrading from Teddy Bridgewater / Drew Lock to Russell Wilson.
Betting / Fantasy Analysis
Denver’s odds to win the Super Bowl improved dramatically following the news of the trade. Before acquiring Wilson, the Broncos sat at +2500 odds at Caesars Sportsbook. Now, they are +1200 and are the fifth-most favored NFL team behind the Buffalo Bills (+650), Kansas City Chiefs (+750), Green Bay Packers (+750 thanks to the re-signing of Aaron Rodgers), and the Los Angeles Rams (+1000).
And according to DraftKings, the Broncos now have a legitimate shot at halting Kansas City’s streak of winning the AFC West. The Chargers may threaten a bit but I wouldn’t be worried about the Raiders. However, surpassing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs is no easy task. Still, the +200 odds signify that Vegas is buying into the Broncos big time!
Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks saw their odds to win the Super Bowl fall from 40:1 to 75:1 at Caesars. There is no way the Seahawks will compete with Drew Lock or Geno Smith under center. Seattle could finish in last place in the NFC West. The Los Angeles Rams are coming off a Super Bowl title, the San Francisco 49ers were one victory away from representing the NFC, and Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals are clearly improving. Seattle’s odds at winning the division on DraftKings are a whopping +1200 while the Rams and Niners are the clear-cut favorites.
Impact of Russell Wilson Trade On The Seattle Seahawks’ Offense
Seattle Seahawks Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf and the core of Seattle Seahawks wideouts just took a huge loss. Certainly, Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are two of the league's elite receivers, but they are only as good as their quarterback. Lockett specifically had great deep-ball chemistry with Wilson. Without Wilson, Seattle will look more to the running game. Simply put, the loss of Wilson is a tragic downgrade for the Seahawks’ passing game. It is almost certain that guys like Metcalf and Lockett have less efficient seasons without their leader. Unfortunately for them, their stock is trending downwards. This is not because of their skill sets as receivers but a result of the massive loss at the quarterback position. When Geno Smith filled in for the injured Wilson last season, Metcalf and Lockett struggled immensely. In Smith’s four games, he surpassed 200 passing yards just once. Lockett has one very strong outing with Smith under center (12 receptions for 142 yards) but he failed to post 60 receiving yards in any of the other three games and didn’t find the end zone without Wilson on the field. And that one strong outing came against the atrocious Jacksonville Jaguars, so that’s not even saying much. Metcalf fared much better with Smith, scoring five touchdowns over that four-game span. And even though he came close to surpassing 100 yards in two of those contests, he still fell slightly short. That said, Metcalf is the receiver with more talent and he could be talented enough to have significant value even with Smith or Lock in the huddle. Fantasy owners will want to consider fading Lockett though. Neither Smith nor Lock has the arm to hit Lockett on deep balls, which is the wideout’s specialty.
Seattle Seahawks Running Backs
Chris Carson, who missed most of last season due to injury, will return to the lineup and see many more snaps in 2022 assuming he can stay healthy. Whoever is running the ball in Seattle will get many more looks now that Russell Wilson is gone. If anything, Seattle will be running the ball more next year, while they look to rebuild their passing game and find their quarterback of the future. It is highly unlikely that Drew Lock comes into Seattle and works his way like a franchise player. There is a reason he didn’t earn the starting job over Teddy Bridgewater in Denver last season.
At the most, the Seahawks are looking for a filler signal-caller for the next few seasons who can manage games. Compare their situation to the one the Saints found themselves in when Drew Brees announced he was retiring. Fortunately, the Saints already had Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill as back-ups to Brees who were able to learn from him. Although Winston tore his ACL seven games into the season, he led the Saints to a 5-2 record to start the season, including a blowout Week 1 win over the Packers.
The Seahawks do not have the luxury of a good backup like the Saints had in Winston. The best option they currently have is likely Geno Smith, who’s shadowed Russell Wilson in Seattle over the last few seasons. At the moment, he is the quarterback who knows Seattle’s system the best and has hundreds of hours of reps in the books with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and the rest of the receiving corps. Still, Smith’s talent is not remotely comparable to Wilson’s excellency and he will likely struggle in the pocket. Even he is an unrestricted free agent who Seattle might not re-sign. The bottom line is that there is no current solution in Seattle at the most important position in football. The current options available to the organization would be significant downgrades in comparison to what Russell Wilson brought to the table.
That said, Rashaad Penny came on strong late last season so he could have some value, especially if Seattle leans on the running game as expected. But if he has to split carries with Carson, neither player will have massive value. Both are still worthy of mid-to-late fliers in your fantasy draft.
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Impact of Russel Wilson’s Addition To The Denver Broncos’ Offense
Denver Broncos Wide Receivers
As they currently stand, the Broncos do not have the sexiest receiving core but there is definitely upside on this roster. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are the two most talented pass-catchers on the current roster. Moving away from Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock to pave the way for Wilson is the best possible scenario any of Denver’s receivers could have hoped for.
Sutton recorded 776 receiving yards and two touchdowns this past season, while Jeudy was limited to 467 yards as a result of missing close to half of the season due to a high ankle sprain. Jeudy, specifically, is an athletic sensation and one of the fastest down-the-field receivers you can find. Look for him to bounce back next season (hopefully healthy), and catch deep accurate balls from Wilson in open space. He can serve the same role that Lockett served in Seattle. And these types of plays are decisive in the NFL, and Wilson’s accuracy provides Denver’s route runners the best chance of catching the ball. However, fast young athletic receivers like Jeudy need an accurate pass for that given play to succeed. In comes Russell Wilson. If Denver’s receivers have another garbage season, the quarterback will likely not be the one to blame.
Something tells me Tim Patrick will play a pivotal role in Denver’s offensive revival as well. Patrick hauled in 53 passes for 734 yards and five touchdowns despite missing a game. Patrick was also much more successful with Bridgewater than Lock. Now that Denver has a trustworthy gunslinger, Patrick should flourish.
And let’s not forget about Albert Okwuegbunam. With Noah Fant off to Seattle, Albert O should serve as Wilson’s primary security blanket on short and intermediate routes. He could also be a significant red-zone threat.
Denver Broncos Running Backs
Denver’s running attack should maintain a similar role to the one they had last season. Their rushing yards shouldn't be impacted significantly by the addition of Wilson. Wilson likes to use his running backs in the passing game so Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon could see additional PPR points through dump-offs and screen passes.
The bonus is that both Melvin Gordon and Wilson played for the University of Wisconsin-Madison. This coincidence could go a long way in establishing strong chemistry from the get-go between Denver’s new star quarterback and Gordon, who’s rushed for at least 900 yards and scored at least eight rushing touchdowns in each of the last two seasons in Denver. However, with second-year running back Javonte Williams expected to surpass Gordon on the depth chart and see increased playing time, the Broncos may opt to lowball Gordon on a new deal. But Gordon knows this is a chance of a lifetime so he may take a less lucrative deal to play with a real competitor.
Last season, Gordon also had more than 200 receiving yards and two touchdown catches. Maybe Wilson’s presence on the team will open more doors for Gordon and Williams to run out of the backfield, and expand their respective receiving game. We aren’t looking at the next Christian McCaffrey in Williams, but he could emerge as a top-10 running back in the NFL. Gordon is still good, but Williams has the potential to be elite, especially with opposing defenses no longer able to stack the box. Defenses will have to respect Denver’s passing game, something they haven’t had to do since Peyton Manning retired.
Impact of Aaron Rodgers’ Return To The Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers Wide Receivers
The best news in this article applies to Green Bay’s core of wideouts. Green Bay has largely built their receiving core through the draft beginning with Davante Adams in 2014. Adams, who caught 120+ passes for 1500+ yards and 11 touchdowns continue to prove that he is matchup proof and most likely the top wide receiver in the NFL and fantasy football. No wonder the team franchise-tagged the talented All-Pro.
Over the last few years, Green Bay has drafted Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown and signed a 2018 undrafted rookie named Allen Lazard. All four of these guys have only played for Green Bay and only caught passes from A-Rog (when active). The Packers also brought back Randall Cobb last season, who was drafted by Green Bay in 2011 and played there until 2018. The Packers had a legitimate shot at winning the Super Bowl this past season but were outplayed at home by a feisty San Francisco roster. Rodgers will attempt to get revenge with the best wide receiver in the league in his arsenal of weapons in Adams. Lazard proved late in the season that he can be a legitimate WR2 in this offense as well (eight touchdowns in the regular season).
It seems chemistry built between Rodgers and the weapons the Packers have put at his disposal is the key to the team's success. At the moment, all five of Green Bay’s receivers have been drafted by the team. Only Cobb left the team after his first seven seasons in the league. Green Bay pursued the aging veteran last summer to link him up with Rodgers again, and offer the young receivers a true veteran WR who obviously knows the ins and outs of the organization. Cobb has played eight of his 10 NFL seasons in Green Bay. Last year was the first in which he was a veteran. When he played for Green Bay between 2011 and 2018, he was the young guy learning from receivers like Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings. It is his turn now to pass on what he knows, especially to the young wideouts drafted in 2018. I believe that based on how Green Bay has built their receiving core, they may have one of the most synchronized groups of wideouts and this was before they re-signed the reigning MVP. Now that Rodgers is returning, the sky's the limit to what this passing offense can achieve next season.
Green Bay Packers Running Backs
AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones must be ecstatic knowing that Rodgers is returning to Green Bay. They would have suffered without Rodgers. Jordan Love is not ready to lead a team to a championship. This would have especially been true for Aaron Jones, who had 52 receptions for 391 yards and six touchdown catches. In fact, Jones scored two more receiving touchdowns than he did rushing touchdowns this past season, showing the extent to which he’s developed alongside Rodgers.
Having Rodgers back means that the Packers can keep using Aaron Jones as a dual-threat running back capable of rushing the ball and running short routes to catch quick passes while Dillon continues to serve as a change-of-pace back. However, Dillon wasn’t too shabby himself last season. He finished with over 1,000 combined yards from scrimmage including 300 yards through the air. Clearly, the running game in Green Bay has evolved and the team’s backs are being used as slot receivers more than they had in previous seasons. With Rodgers returning, we can expect this excellent one-two punch out of the backfield to continue producing receiving yardage and build on the combined 700+ receiving yards and eight touchdown catches produced by Jones and Dillon last season.
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