Best 2022 AFC & NFC Championship NFL Player Props Bets
After nailing 80% of our Best Bets against the spread in the postseason (including all four in the Divisional Round), we converted 60% of our player props last week. Let's build on that success and keep the momentum going.
Don’t forget to check out our Conference Championship Betting Preview.
With just two weeks left in the NFL postseason to make wagers, it’s time to look for the top player prop bets as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Title game and the Los Angeles Rams host the San Francisco 49ers in a battle for the NFC Championship.
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After a successful season of wagers (over 60% accurate) and two straight weeks of major profit in the playoffs, it is time to identify the top player props heading into the Conference Championship this weekend.
Please note that all odds and lines are current as of 11 AM EST on Thursday, January 27.
AFC Conference Championship Player Props
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Ja’Marr Chase Over 82.5 Receiving Yards @ BetMGM (-118)
The last time the Bengals met the Chiefs back in Week 17, Chase set the franchise rookie record for most receiving yards in a single game (266 on 11 receptions) and he hauled in three touchdowns. In fact, excluding Week 19 when the Bengals rested most of their starters, Chase has tallied 109+ receiving yards in four consecutive outings. This line seems way too low, especially with Kansas City’s star safety, Tyrann Mathieu, still in the concussion protocol. That’s not the only injury in the Chiefs’ secondary. Rashad Fenton has a knee injury that has kept him out of the first two playoff matchups. Even if he plays, it’s unlikely that he will be at full strength. This all bodes well for Chase, who was just named the Offensive Rookie of the Year by Pro Football Writers.
The chemistry between Joe Burrow and Chase carried over from college and there is a great chance that the two will link up for at least one huge play this week. The Bengals will get their best playmaker the ball as much as possible and we may even see some trick plays and creative play calls to allow the rookie to find some open space with the ball.
We all know that Kansas City has the most potent offense in the league. Cincinnati will have to throw the ball more than usual to keep up with the Chiefs’ high-powered offense. On the season (and including the playoffs), the rookie has produced 95 receptions, 1,680 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns, and is averaging 17.7 yards per reception. That means he only needs to catch five balls to most likely break 83 receiving yards. Smash the Over. This is easy money.
Patrick Mahomes Over 29.5 Rushing Yards @ DraftKings (-115)
When the postseason comes, Mahomes uses his wheels far more than in the regular season. Heading into a clash with the league’s top-rated defense last week against Buffalo, Mahomes was averaging 36 rushing yards in eight postseason appearances. The 2019 MVP proceeded to smash the Over with 69 rushing yards on seven attempts against the Bills. Mahomes has now hit the Over on this prop in four of his last six outings. We all know that Andy Reid is going to continue to call more passing plays to keep the ball in his best player’s hands. That means more opportunities for Mahomes to scramble against Cincinnati’s pass rush. Kansas City’s gunslinger should have no problem surpassing 30 rushing yards in the Conference Championship.
Patrick Mahomes Over 286.5 Passing Yards @ BetMGM (-120)
Mahomes has been close to flawless in the postseason. After throwing an early interception against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Super Wild Card Weekend, he proceeded to finish with over 400 passing yards and five touchdowns. Against Buffalo’s stout secondary, he produced 378 passing yards and three touchdowns. That epic finish against the Bills showed us just how quickly Mahomes can get the ball downfield, no matter the circumstances. Whether he is leading the Chiefs to an opening-drive score or mounting a comeback in the final seconds, Kansas City lives or dies with Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City is going to put up a ton of points. They have tallied 30+ points in six of their last seven contests, including 31 against these same Bengals in Week 17, and 42 points in each of these last two playoff contests. The Chiefs are a pass-first team and with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce performing at full strength, Mahomes should soar past this line. Take the Over.
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Byron Pringle Over 35.5 Receiving Yards @ PointsBet
Pringle may not be the featured playmaker in Kansas City’s offense, but he’s moved up the depth chart and seems to be operating as the Chiefs’ third option in passing situations, behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. In Kansas City’s two postseason games this year, Pringle has seen a 17% target share, which is pretty impressive considering Mahomes has thrown the ball 83 times over that span.
Last week against Buffalo, Pringle saw seven targets and hauled in five receptions for the third consecutive week. However, he only managed 29 receiving yards against the Bills. Still, Pringle’s involvement out of the slot is promising. The Bengals rank 30th among defenses in yards allowed to slot receivers this season. Pringle is seeing more looks than Mecole Hardman and although he’s not going to record massive receiving numbers like Kelce or Hill, Pringle has produced at least 35 receiving yards in four of his last five contests. In the postseason, he is averaging a mere 4.7 yards per target despite averaging 9.5 yards per target in the regular season. I’m expecting a regression to the mean, which should mean an uptick in yards so long as his target share continues to hover around 15%.
Considering Mahomes’ impeccable form as of late, it’s a smart bet to ride the Over on this prop. Pringle will continue to be a pivotal piece in Kansas City’s high-powered offense.
NFC Conference Championship Player Props
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
George Kittle Over 50.5 Receiving Yards @ PointsBet (-125)
After a late-season slump, Kittle finally had a decent day in San Francisco’s Divisional Round upset of the Green Bay Packers. The superstar tight end saw a 30% target share and hauled in four of six targets for 63 yards. San Francisco will undoubtedly look to keep Kittle very involved in the offensive game plan against a Los Angeles Rams defense that allowed 5.5 receptions for 52.3 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends. In two regular-season games against the Rams this season, Kittle caught 10 balls on 14 targets. Although his yardage output was very low against the Rams in both of his previous outings, the bruising tight end is among the league leaders in yards after the catch at his position and we have seen him break 100 receiving yards three times this season. The Rams are particularly vulnerable on defense down the middle of the field, which is exactly where Kittle excels with his route running. Expert Jimmy Garoppolo to hit his big target on a few slants and seams downfield. If the Niners want to keep pace with Matthew Stafford’s potent offense, Kittle is going to play a significant role in San Francisco’s aerial attack. I wouldn’t be surprised if he scored a touchdown as well.
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Elijah Mitchell Over 70.5 Rushing Yards @ BetMGM (-115)
Although the Niners will have to throw the ball to keep pace with the Rams, San Francisco still employs a run-heavy offensive scheme that primarily revolves around the sixth-round draft pick out of the University of Louisiana at Lafayette. Eli Mitchell emerged over fellow rookie, Trey Sermon, as the 49ers’ workhorse after Raheem Mostert suffered a season-ending injury.
In 13 games played including the playoffs, Mitchell has surpassed 71 or more rushing yards eight times. In each of his two appearances against the Rams this season, he tallied at least 85 rushing yards. The Rams have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the postseason thus far (56), but they took early leads in both contests and faced inferior running offenses in the Arizona Cardinals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not to mention, no time ran the ball more than the 49ers did this season (499 attempts).
Although Deebo Samuel joined Mitchell in the backfield late in the season and began to eat into the rookie’s workload, Samuel will keep the Rams’ defensive front off-balance, allowing Mitchell to produce more yardage when gets the rock. Before last week’s matchup with the Packers, Mitchell has carried the ball 21+ times in six straight appearances. He came up just short last week with 17 carries for 53 yards, his lowest rushing output since Week 9 when he was limited to just eight carries. In seven of the nine regular-season games in which he saw double-digit carries, he surpassed 85 rushing yards.
Mitchell will see plenty of action as Kyle Shanahan will do all he can to keep the ball out of Stafford’s hands and burn some clock. Given his historical success against the Rams and the expected high volume of opportunities, the rookie should have no problem surpassing 71 rushing yards on Sunday.
Deebo Samuel Over 39.5 Rushing Yards @ BetMGM (-115)
I clearly think the Niners are going to have a successful day on offense given all the Over prop bets I am recommending. With a Super Bowl appearance at stake, Kyle Shanahan is going to do everything he can to find creative ways to get his hybrid running back / wide receiver the ball. San Francisco will force-feed Samuel given his propensity for game-changing long touchdowns.
Samuel has seen at least 10 carries in each of the 49ers’ two postseason games and has rushing for at least 39 yards in three straight weeks, including Week 18’s victory over the Rams in which he turned eight carries into 45 yards and a touchdown, while also chipping in with four receptions for an additional 95 yards through the air.
The Rams have had serious problems limiting Samuel’s production over the last two years. In his last four games against his NFC West rivals over the last two seasons, Deebo has averaged 116.5 total yards on 10 touches per game. Now that he’s seeing additional action out of the backfield (7.3 carries for 45.5 rushing yards per game since Week 10), Samuel should have no problem reaching 40 rushing yards against a team that he has shredded in previous meetings.
Matthew Stafford Over 284.5 Passing + Rushing Yards @ BetMGM (-118)
Considering how effective and efficient I anticipate the 49ers’ offense will be after winning six straight matchups between these two franchises, I expect Stafford will have to be lights out for the Rams to earn a Super Bowl berth in the NFC. Stafford was awesome against Tom Brady’s Buccaneers last week. He completed 73.7% of his passes for 368 yards and two touchdowns and didn’t commit any turnovers. And against the Arizona Cardinals on Super Wild Card Weekend, he turned six carries into 22 rushing yards, including a 10-yard scramble. He may not be known for his speed and rushing ability, but he can take off out of the pocket on occasion.
Stafford is going to have plenty of opportunities due to San Francisco’s stout front seven on the defensive side of the ball. The Niners have allowed just one running back to produce over 47 rushing yards since Week 10. San Francisco allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards and the fifth-fewest yards per carry during the regular season. Meanwhile, they ranked in the middle of the league in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.1). Sean McVay is going to let Stafford air it out, especially against a Niners secondary that is the weakest unit on the entire team.
The last time these two teams met, Stafford started strong, but teetered out, finishing with 238 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. Part of the reason that Stafford struggled so much in the second half was the constant pressure that he was under from Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and the rest of the 49ers’ pass rushers.
San Francisco didn’t send extra pass rushers, the defensive line was just beating the Los Angeles offensive line fairly easily. In fact, Stafford is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when facing the blitz (fourth-highest graded by PFF). That’s partially why he was so effective against the Buccaneers last week. Tampa blitzed Stafford a season-high 17 times last week, including on the last pass of the game to Cooper Kupp that set up Matt Gay’s game-winning field goal. However, the Niners know that Stafford excels when the defense adds extra rushers off the edge, which is why they blitzed a mere 14% of plays in both regular-season meetings.
This time around, Stafford knows what to expect. He knows San Francisco will be dropping linebackers into coverage and that he will still need to get the ball out of his hands quickly due to San Francisco’s excellent defensive line. The Rams are going to run plenty of screens, quick slants, curls, and play actions. As always, Kupp will have another great game, as nobody in San Francisco’s secondary has close to enough speed and agility to cover the talented wideout. Kupp should total 100+ receiving yards himself. Odell Beckham Jr. is poised for a big game as well considering the rapport he has established with his quarterback. After failing to score with the Cleveland Browns over the first half of the season, Beckham has found the end zone six times in a Rams uniform. Beckham also has 10 receptions for over 100 yards in the playoffs thus far. And don’t forget about tight end Tyler Higbee, who secured six receptions for 55 yards and two scores against the Niners back in Week 18. After a slow start to the season, Higbee has produced 40 or more receiving yards in his last six outings. Plus, there’s Van Jefferson, who is always a big-play threat (three receptions for 54 yards against the Niners back in Week 10).
All in all, Stafford has the skill set and the weapons in his arsenal to produce 285 total yards from scrimmage. Given the 49ers’ propensity to stop the run, I anticipate Stafford throwing for over 300 yards alone. He won’t even need to use his legs to hit the Over on this prop.
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