NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Best Player Props
After converting about 60% of our Best Bets during the regular season, we nailed 66% of our Super Wild Card Weekend top wagers. So don’t miss out on our Divisional Round Best Bets! That said, it was a bad week for us with player prop bets, so let’s get back on track before the final three weeks of the NFL postseason.
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After a successful season of wagers and converting four of six-game bets last week, it’s time to get our prop game back on fire after going just 2-4 last week. Let’s identify the top player props heading into the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs this weekend!
Please note that all Divisional Round odds and lines are current as of 5 PM EST on Wednesday, January 19. The Packers-Niners are props were updated on Thursday, January 20 at 5 PM EST.
NFL Divisional Round Props
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cooper Kupp Under 102.5 Receiving Yards (-110) @ FanDuel
We were burned by Kupp last week as he only totaled five receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown. I expected him to break the 100-yard barrier, but Odell Beckham Jr. and Tyler Higbee were more involved than anticipated. After scoring zero touchdowns with the Browns this season, Beckham now has six touchdowns since joining the Rams.
Now that Matthew Stafford and Beckham have developed a rapport, the Rams don’t need to rely on Kupp quite as much as they did early in the season and following Robert Woods’ season-ending injury. In his first game against the Buccaneers back in Week 3, Kupp dominated Tampa Bay’s injury-ravaged secondary with nine receptions for 96 yards and two touchdowns. That still wouldn’t hit the Over in this huge line for this week’s prop.
If the Rams have any shot at defeating the reigning Super Bowl champs, they will have to have a very balanced approach on offense. That means plenty of the electrifying Cam Akers, as well as Sony Michel, mixed in. Los Angeles will do everything they can to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands. Sean McVay knows that the Rams need to win the time of possession battle, which means a bigger commitment to the running game. While I still believe Kupp will have a strong outing, surpassing 103 receiving yards is no easy task. He has done so 11 times this season, but I’m anticipating Stafford spreading the ball around more in this matchup. Take the Under.
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Tom Brady Over 286.5 Passing Yards (-114) @ FanDuel
With Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd, and Von Miller attempting to make life difficult for the GOAT, Brady is going to have to get the ball out quickly and accurately if the Bucs want another shot at getting to the Super Bowl. Despite not having Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown at his disposal, Brady still managed 271 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles in the Wild Card Round. He’s going to need to do more against a much more competitive Rams squad.
This is one of those games where I can see the Bucs completely abandoning the run, especially because the Rams could get out to an early lead as they did against the Cardinals, and because Leonard Fournette won’t be at full strength after missing the last few games. The Buccaneers will have a pass-heavy game plan heading into this game. We know that Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski will show up, but Brady will need to establish better chemistry with Tyler Johnson and Breshad Periman. Cameron Brate should serve as a solid security blanket and Gio Bernard will be catching plenty of balls out of the backfield.
I foresee Brady cracking 300 passing yards easily in this one. Smash the Over and thank me after collecting your cash!
Rob Gronkowski Under 70.5 Receiving Yards (-130) @ PointsBet
Gronk is Brady’s second most trustworthy target behind Mike Evans now that Chris Godwin is out for the season and Antonio Brown has kicked off the team. While I envision the veteran's tight end hauling in a touchdown and being a huge red-zone target for Brady, I don’t see him surpassing 71 receiving yards. Back in Week 3 against the Rams, Gronk hauled in four receptions for 55 yards. And in Tampa’s big victory over the Eagles last week, Gronkowski only mustered 31 yards, though he did score a touchdown.
The Rams only allow 50.1 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, which makes this prop line seem way too high, especially since Cameron Brate will surely see some targets as well.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160) @ Caesars
The Bengals are a pass-heavy team with a stud quarterback in Joe Burrow and one of the best receiver tandems in the league featuring Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Don’t get me wrong, they can absolutely run the ball well too with superstar Joe Mixon, but Zac Taylor will look to exploit Tennessee’s secondary. The Titans allowed 245.2 passing yards per game, the eighth-worst in the NFL. It will be difficult to find any running room for Mixon, as Tennessee permitted just 84.6 rushing yards per game, the second-fewest in the league.
After throwing two touchdown passes in Cincinnati’s Wild Card victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Bengals will need to air it out against the top-seeded Titans. In his last five games, Burrow has tossed 13 touchdown passes. He has produced multiple touchdowns in four games over that span. Additionally, he started the 2021 campaign with eight straight games with 2+ touchdown passes.
With the entire offense healthy, it’s hard to envision the Bengals struggling to score the ball against a Titans defense that is good, but not elite. Considering how well Chase and Higgins have performed as of late, Cincinnati is going to create serious matchup problems for Tennessee’s secondary. Burrow will easily find the end zone with at least two touchdown darts on Saturday.
Ja’Marr Chase Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115) @ PointsBet
Chase could not be stopped by the Las Vegas Raiders last week despite the Raiders' historical success limiting opponents’ explosive passing plays this season. The rookie saw a 35% target share in the Bengals’ biggest game this season and surpassed 100 receiving yards in his third straight contest (excluding Week 18 when Cincinnati rested their starters).
Chase gets an even more favorable matchup this week against a Titans secondary that allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts. Similar to Burrow’s prop, this line seems too low given the Titans’ unexploitable run defense, which allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Burrow is going to throw the rock to his most trusted receiver time and time again in the Divisional Round. Zac Taylor is going to let his team’s Super Bowl hopes rest in the hands of his two best offensive players – Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Josh Allen Over 275.5 Passing Yards (-115) @ PointsBet
In what should be an absolute shootout between the two best teams in the AFC, Josh Allen is going to erupt. Allen threw for 308 yards in Buffalo’s thrashing of the New England Patriots last week. New England boasted the second-best defense in the league in terms of points allowed. This week, Allen and the Bills take on a Kansas City defense that allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game (368.9) during the regular season.
With Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox, and Devin Singletary in his arsenal of weapons, Allen should have no problem putting up monster numbers against the Chiefs’ mediocre defense. Not to mention, Allen has totaled 300+ yards from scrimmage in every away game since Week 2 at Miami. That includes a Week 5 performance at Arrowhead in which he tossed for 315 yards and added an additional 59 yards on the ground. Expect more of the same on Sunday. This is easy money.
Patrick Mahomes Over 281.5 Passing Yards (-110) @ BetMGM
The Bills are difficult to pass the ball against, as the NFL’s top defensive unit permitted a mere 163 yards per game through the air. However, Andy Reid’s Chiefs are a pass-happy, high-powered offense. Coach Reid would much prefer to put the ball in Mahomes’ hands than running backs Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon, or Darrel Williams (Williams fumbled his only touch last week).
Against a decent Pittsburgh Steelers secondary last week, Mahomes threw for a whopping 404 yards and five touchdowns. With top cornerback Tre'Davious White out of action after tearing his ACL, Buffalo’s secondary will be much easier to attack, especially with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce running routes. Each of Mahomes’ go-to targets caught five balls and found the end zone in the Wild Card Round. Kelce surpassed 100 yards and even threw a touchdown himself, but I digress. Kelce running seams and slants through the middle of the field should open up space for Hill, Byron Pringle, Mecole Hardman, and DeMarcus Robinson. Plus, McKinnon proved he can be a very valuable pass-catcher out of the backfield last week. He hauled in all six of his targets for 81 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers. Although Reid isn’t ready to commit to McKinnon as the starter, there is no doubt that the veteran running back will have a much more pivotal role in the Divisional Round.
Although CEH is practicing this week, McKinnon’s expected increased role should mean more passing plays for the Chiefs. McKinnon is much more reliable as a pass-catcher than as an in-between-the-tackles rusher. Although Mahomes was held to 272 passing yards when these two teams met in Week 5, the Chiefs went through a major transformation since then. This Kansas City offense is playing so much better now than it did early in the season. The adversity has helped this team and they will be incredibly confident and motivated against their toughest opponent yet. The Chiefs live and die behind Patrick Mahomes and he’s going to deliver another stunning performance on Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
Davante Adams Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-110) @ FanDuel
Adams has been a beast all season long and has produced 91 receiving yards in five of his last seven games. Although, he sat out the second half of Week 18 he hit that mark in five of his last six outings, considering he only played 32 percent of snaps in the final week of the regular season.
The Packers have a difficult matchup with the 49ers, but if there is one area to exploit on San Francisco’s defense, it’s their secondary. Although the Niners allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game, they don’t have any cornerbacks who can come remotely close to containing the top wideout in the NFL.
I’m not hesitating to take the Over and you shouldn’t either. The Packers will put the ball in the hands of their greatest skill players in a win-or-go-home matchup.
Aaron Jones Under 80.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115) @ BetMGM
The San Francisco 49ers have allowed one running back to rush for over 47 yards since Week 10 and held the Dallas Cowboys running backs to just 45 yards on 16 rushing attempts in the Wild Card Round. The Niners have the sixth-highest graded rushing defense according to PFF and A.J. Dillon has recently turned this backfield into a running back by committee. Dillon has out-carried Jones by an average of 3.4 per game in games where both were active since Week 12.
Although Jones will likely see some targets and produce some yards through the air, the way to beat this defense is with intermediate-to-deep routes on the outside. Rodgers is going to be targeting Adams, Allen Lazard, and the rest of the wideouts before hitting Jones for short dump offs. Smash the Under here.
Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (-115) @ DraftKings
The last time these two teams faced off back in Week 3, Samuel hauled in five receptions on 10 targets. While he may not see the same target share with Brandon Aiyuk stepping up and George Kittle back in action, Samuel is San Francisco’s best playmaker. I think Kyle Shannahan will look to get the ball in his hands as much as possible. Expect a lot of short screens as well as some deep shots. I would be very surprised if Samuel didn’t catch at least five passes in this pivotal postseason contest.
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