Using Predictive Adds To Identify Week 14 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups
Week 13 is officially in the books after the New England Patriots defeated the Buffalo Bills. Despite throwing just three passes the entire game due to 60 MPH gusts of wind, Mac Jones led the Pats to their sixth-straight victory. New England will enter their bye week atop the AFC with a 9-4 record. The Arizona Cardinals defeated Chicago to stay atop the NFC with a 10-2 record. There is still a lot of football to be played through as the postseason picture becomes clearer.
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In the final week of the fantasy football regular season, adding the right players off the waiver wire can be the difference between making and missing the playoffs, or perhaps even a fantasy football title! Some of last week’s hottest waiver wire adds produced huge outings in Week 13, highlighted by Alexander Mattison and Taysom Hill. Others such as Jamaal Williams and Kendrick Bourne caused fantasy owners massive migraines.
Week 14 will kick off in just two days with two teams fighting for postseason life. The 6-5-1 Pittsburgh Steelers head to U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis to take on the 5-7 Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are currently three-point favorites. This will also be a very difficult week for fantasy owners with four teams on bye (Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, and New England Patriots). This will be the last week that fantasy owners have to deal with the bye week blues. That said, there are a ton of top-tier playmaker absences that fantasy owners will have to manage in the final week of the fantasy regular season. Jalen Hurts, Carson Wentz, Mac Jones, and Tua Tagovailoa have all shown flashes of QB1 numbers this season. The top player in all of fantasy football, Jonathan Taylor, will not suit up this week along with fellow running backs Miles Sanders, Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Myles Gaskin. Fantasy owners will have to find bye-week cover for wide receivers Devonta Smith, Michael Pittman, Kenrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers, and Jaylen Waddle. Dallas Goedert, who finally broke out of his slump by eclipsing 100 yards and scoring two touchdowns against the Jets, will highlight the tight ends on bye this week. Fantasy owners will also need to find replacements for Mike Gesicki and Hunter Henry.
This week is also incredibly important because it seems like at this point of the season, year in and year out, a handful of players become big-time contributors who end up on tons of fantasy football champions’ rosters. With one final week before the fantasy playoffs, now is the time to make those pivotal waiver wire claims and FAAB bids.
Now that Week 13 is in the books, it’s time to prepare for Week 14 with FantasySP’s unique Predictive Analytics. Keep reading here to access our Predictive Analytics or log into your account, and utilize the Fantasy Assistant. From there, you can see the predictive adds, drops, trades, and FAAB.
Predictive Analytics in a nutshell is a game-changer for fantasy players. No one else in the industry offers these types of insights. You will now be able to analyze the most important fantasy metrics of the current week BEFORE waivers are processed.
Find out the Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) of each player, as well as how much of your FAAB budget it would take to get “your guy” in the average league. You will now have unique insights into which players fantasy owners are giving up on and which players fantasy owners are fighting for in the current week.
Looking At Week 14 Fantasy Football Predictive Adds:
[predict="add-2021-14"]
New Orleans Saints DEF/ST
Streaming defenses has become a common practice in fantasy football. No defense is being added more than the New Orleans Saints heading into a Week 14 matchup with a New York Jets team that allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. The Jets are coming off a 33-18 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Although Zach Wilson had one of his best performances of the season thus far, he will have much more trouble against New Orleans’ front four and Marshon Lattimore in the secondary. The Jets were already missing their top running back, rookie Michael Carter, and wide receiver Corey Davis was just ruled out for the remainder of the season. At 3-9, New York doesn’t have much to play for while the 5-7 Saints are still technically alive in the race for a Wild Card spot in the NFC. Rookie wideout Elijah Moore continues to build on his breakout season, but outside of him, the Jets lack any weapons that will scare New Orleans. The Saints could easily turn a Zach Wilson interception into a touchdown in Week 14. They are rightfully the top defense being added across all formats.
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WR K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings
Osborn, who has been quiet in recent weeks, caught four passes on seven targets for 47 yards and a touchdown in the Vikings’ surprising loss to the Lions. He is being added more than any other position player on the waiver wire heading into Week 14. Osborn probably wouldn’t have been as productive in Week 13 if not for an ankle injury that sidelined Adam Thielen early in the game.
https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1467922362741903360
Over the first six weeks of the season, Osborn was a critical piece of Minnesota’s offense. He produced three double-digit performances in PPR formats (14.6, 20.1, and 19.8 points). He’s back in the double-digit column and should see a much more prominent role with Thielen doubtful for Week 14’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers on a short week. Osborn is poised to build on last week’s success against a Steelers secondary that is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. If you own Thielen, Osborn is an obvious handcuff to add immediately. If Thielen is out for the foreseeable future, Osborn could be a league-winning pickup.
[lastten="K.J. Osborn"]
Seattle Seahawks DEF/ST
The Seahawks are flying high after their thrilling and emotional victory over the San Francisco 49ers. Seattle forced three turnovers (two interceptions and one fumble) and sacked Jimmy Garroppolo once. Now, Seattle heads to Houston to take on a Texans offense that will be starting rookie Davis Mills over the injured Tyrod Taylor. The Texans are currently allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses this season. They average the fewest points (13.7), passing yards (197.7), and rushing yards per game (78.8). They also average 1.1 interceptions per contest and get sacked 2.9 times per game. Although Seattle has struggled on both sides of the ball, this is the easiest matchup they have had all season. The last time they faced a truly horrible team (the Jacksonville Jaguars), they returned an interception for a touchdown and only allowed seven points. Fantasy owners should expect similar results in Week 14 against a rusty Davis Mills.
Los Angeles Chargers DEF/ST
Against a formidable offense in the Cincinnati Bengals, the Chargers dominated defensively, finishing as Week 13’s top defensive unit in fantasy football. Los Angeles put Joe Burrow on his back a whopping six times and forced four turnovers (two interceptions and two fumbles), one of which they returned to the house. This was by far the Chargers’ most complete game of the season. In Week 14, the Chargers get a treat, as they will host a New York Giants squad that will likely be without starting quarterback Daniel Jones. The G-Men failed to find the end zone with Mike Glennon under center and could resort to the former fifth-round pick out Georgia, Jake Fromm. Glennon is dealing with a concussion and Fromm has never started an NFL game. Regardless of who ends up starting for the Giants, the Chargers will have no problem preventing the G-Men from moving the chains. Joey Bosa is going to wreak havoc and Derwin James will force a turnover in one way or another. The Chargers could finish as this week’s top defensive unit for a second consecutive week.
WR Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons
Without Calvin Ridley, it appears that Gage and Kyle Pitts have established themselves as Matt Ryan’s go-to targets. Cordarrelle Patterson is still Atlanta’s top playmaker, but he can only do so much despite lining up out wide and in the backfield. Gage was absolute gold on Sunday, hauling in 11 receptions on 12 targets for 130 yards. He almost pulled in the 12th target as time expired in the end zone, which would have catapulted him to an even noteworthy outing. Still, Gage set career highs in receptions and yards and has now exceeded 18 PPR points in two consecutive outings. Over his last three games, he is averaging 9.0 targets per contest, outpacing Pitts as Matty Ice’s go-to man down the field. Against the Buccaneers, Gage obviously benefited from the fact that Ryan was forced to throw the ball 41 times in Atlanta’s failed comeback attempt. Atlanta could be in a similar position against the Carolina Panthers in Week 14, though Carolina’s secondary is much stingier against opposing wideouts. Despite the tough matchup, Ryan has nobody else to throw the ball to, and given Gage’s recent volume, savvy fantasy owners are targeting him on the waiver wire. That said, Gage did put up a goose egg the last time these two teams met in Week 8. However, since that contest, Gage has seen at least seven targets in four of his last five contests. He should produce WR3/WR4 numbers in Week 14.
[lastten="Russell Gage"]
RB Ameer Abdullah, Carolina Panthers
Now that Christian McCaffrey has been ruled out for the season, rookie Chuba Hubbard will serve as the early-down back in Carolina. However, it appears that the Panthers are going to utilize a running-back-by-committee approach. Abdullah is poised to take the field on third downs and in obvious passing situations. After CMC went down in Week 12, Abdullah saw six targets, though he only hauled in two receptions. Earlier in the season when McCaffrey was out, Abdullah caught 10 of 14 targets over a three-game span. Hubbard is clearly the superior option, but there is a pathway to success for Abdullah in Week 14. The Panthers get a juicy matchup against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has been shredded by opposing running backs. The Falcons allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, including 6.5 receptions, 49.2 receiving yards, and 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game to the position. Abdullah has a chance at exceeding double-digit points, particularly in PPR formats.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
I boldly predicted that the rookie would score the first touchdown of his career against the Vikings, but I did not know that it would be a game-winning catch as time expired to lift the Lions to their first victory of the season. St. Brown served as Jared Goff’s top target in Week 13; the rookie was peppered with targets, hauling in 10 of the 12 passes thrown his way for 86 yards (all season highs) and the previously mentioned score. St. Brown had lofty expectations coming into the season but got off to a very slow start. Things are beginning to turn around at exactly the right time, as the Lions have some favorable matchups looming. St. Brown gets an Atlanta Falcons defense in Week 16 that has allowed the third-most touchdown receptions in the NFL. The following week, fantasy football championship week, the rookie will face a Seahawks defense that has permitted the third-most receiving yards this season. Things won’t be easy this week against the Denver Broncos’ stingy secondary, but this is more of a long-term pickup. His fantasy postseason schedule and uptick in production make him one of the top waiver wire pickups of the week.
https://twitter.com/Lions/status/1467603237062815757
RB Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
With Chris Carson out for the season and Alex Collins inactive, Rashaad Penny played a prominent role in Seattle’s Week 13 victory over the San Francisco 49ers. Although the Seahawks signed Adrian Peterson to split carries with Penny, it was encouraging to see the injury-prone back flash some of his potential. Penny finished with 62 total yards on 10 carries and one reception. AP is the one who got the goal-line touchdown, but Penny is the superior back. He brings a speed and explosiveness that the Seahawks’ backfield has lacked all season. If Collins remains inactive, Penny should be in the flex conversation in Week 14 against a Texans defense that just allowed over 200 rushing yards to the Colts in Week 13. Houston now allows the most rushing yards per game in the NFL.
QB Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
Hill should be owned in all leagues, but he’s surprisingly still available in about a third of all leagues. Hill proved yet again that you don’t have to be a good quarterback in the NFL to be productive in fantasy football. Although he threw four interceptions in the Saints’ loss to the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football, he scored the third-most fantasy points at the quarterback position in Week 13. The speedy gun-slinging Hill also totaled 264 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and 101 rushing yards. After scoring 28.6, 20.3, 27.9, and 25.9 fantasy points during a four-game stint of starts last season, Hill totaled 20.7 points in Week 13. Hill’s rushing upside makes him a worthy starter, particularly in Week 14 against a New York Jets defense that has been shredded all season and ranks in the bottom-third at limiting production from opposing quarterbacks. In Week 13, Gardner Minshew (playing for the injured Jalen Hurts) looked like the next coming of Tom Brady. He completed 80% of his passes for 242 yards and two touchdowns without committing any turnovers. Minshew made New York look like a Junior Varsity squad right out of the gate, lighting up a secondary that blew coverage assignments all day long.
https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1467566192986673160
The Jets are abysmal against the run, which bodes well for Hill, even with the likely return of Alvin Kamara. Whether you need someone to start for the rest of the season or just a Week 14 bye-week cover, Hill is the man for the job if he is still available. His ownership is about to absolutely skyrocket.
New York Jets defense vs. QBs | 2021 (Per PFF)
Fantasy points allowed (Rank)
|
|
Week 1
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19.0 (16th)
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Week 2
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7.4 (4th)
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Week 3
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11.8 (8th)
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Week 4
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18.8 (15th)
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Week 5
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21.5 (22nd)
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Week 7
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25.0 (22nd)
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Week 8
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20.2 (20th)
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Week 9
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24.2 (24th)
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Week 10
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20.6 (24th)
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Week 11
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17.5 (17th)
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Week 12
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15.3 (17th)
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Week 13
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18.7 (19th)
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RB D’Onta Foreman, Tennessee Titans
Dontrell Hilliard may have had the touchdown in Week 12, but Foreman received more carries (19) and joined Hilliard in surpassing the 100-yard mark. Foreman finished with 109 rushing yards and an additional three yards on one reception. And this came against a very stout New England Patriots defense. Things will be much easier against a Jaguars defense that was just lit up for 37 points against the Rams, including 124 rushing yards on 21 carries to second-stringer Sony Michel. The Titans should have no problem getting out to an early lead against the two-win Jags, so Foreman should see plenty of touches in the second half as Tennessee attempts to run out the clock. Although Hilliard has a bit more upside due to his big-play ability and pass-catching prowess, the game flow seems to be in Foreman’s favor in Week 14. He’s probably the superior option, but as we’ve seen before, both can have great stat lines on the same day.
RB Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals
Edmonds will only be available in the shallowest leagues, but if he’s on your league’s waiver wire, he’s absolutely worth adding despite James Conner’s success in his absence. Edmonds began the season as Arizona’s lead back, but Conner may have leapfrogged him on the depth chart. The first-place Cardinals have a primetime Monday night matchup with the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14. With Aaron Donald dominating the line of scrimmage, it may be difficult for the Cardinals to utilize Conner up the middle. That plays to Edmonds’ advantage, as he is a shifty, elusive, and speedy back who is better than Conner at getting out to the edge. Edmonds is also one of the best pass-catching running backs in the NFL. Edmonds had 30 receptions on the season before going down after the first snap in Week 9, and he has also been effective on the ground, averaging 5.7 yards per carry this season. So long as Edmonds is healthy enough to suit up on Monday night, he could be an integral piece of Arizona’s game plan against a Rams defense that shuts down North-South runners such as Conner.
[career="Chase Edmonds"]
WR Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans
Jones was activated from Injured Reserve and is eligible to begin practicing again this week. Many fantasy owners already gave up the former Atlanta Falcon after he was placed on IR after Week 9. The veteran has had a very poor season in his first campaign with the Titans. He’s been banged up, dealing with a variety of ailments, and has been forced to miss about half the season. On the year, Jones has only accumulated 21 receptions for 336 yards and has yet to find the end zone. However, if he’s good to go in Week 14, Jones should be quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s top target with A.J. Brown still sidelined. The Titans face a Jacksonville Jaguars secondary in Week 14 that is very generous to opposing wide receivers, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. While Jones isn’t the easiest to trust at this point in his career, there aren’t many wide receivers with his talent on the waiver wire. He should be peppered with targets and I’m betting he finds the end zone for the first time this season.
https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/1467912719554600966
And that’s a wrap. Head back next week to see which players fantasy owners are flocking towards on the waiver wire ahead of Week 15!