Week 5: Identifying Fantasy Football Trading Trends Using Predictive Analytics
Week 4 is in the books. It’s crazy that we are already a quarter of the way through the season. As we gear up for Week 5, let’s look at the players fantasy owners are trading and trading for most often.
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The best player that people are giving up on early in the season is AJ Brown, who currently sits as the fifth-most traded player in Week 5. Brown exited the Titans’ contest in Week 3 and was unable to suit up for Sunday’s loss to the New York Jets. He is currently questionable heading into Week 5. The electrifying playmaker has been very subpar even when healthy this season. He has only caught seven of 19 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. Fantasy owners who got off to a slow start are jumping ship way too late. If you began the season with at least a 2-2 record, this is the perfect buy-low opportunity. Brown is inching closer to a return to the field and once he’s back, it’s hard to imagine that he will be as ineffective as he was in his first few outings. Don’t forget that Brown caught 70 balls for 1,070 yards and 11 touchdowns in 14 games last season. If you can get Brown for a discount, now is the time to strike a deal.
On the other side of the ball from Week 4’s Jets-Titans matchup, we have Jamison Crowder. After missing the first three weeks of the season, Crowder returned and served as rookie quarterback Zach Wilson’s security blanket. Crowder was targeted nine times, caught seven passes for 61 yards and found the end zone. The journeyman receiver is going to be a PPR monster for Gang Green. No wonder so many people are making trades for the veteran. While I don’t anticipate Crowder being a top-tier talent, he could very well be worthy of a WR3 or Flex spot in a starting roster.
Antonio Gibson of the Washington Football Team is another player who is being targeted a lot on the trade market this week. In his second year at the professional level, Gibson has accumulated 253 rushing yards on 59 carries. He scored his first rushing touchdown in Week 4. Gibson has additionally tacked on eight receptions for 107 yards and another touchdown. He is slowly but steadily seeing increased usage and has been increasingly effective as the season has progressed. Gibson is being targeted by many owners because he is the undisputed RB1 on a team that is very run-focused with young quarterback Taylor Heinicke under center. Expect Gibson to finish among the top 10 running backs in fantasy football. Don’t overpay for Gibson, but if you can get him at the right price, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger. He is always going to play a ton of snaps and see plenty of opportunities.
The two running backs in Atlanta -- Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson -- are also trending on the trade market, but for very different reasons. Patterson has been the biggest waiver wire gem of the season. He is coming off a whopping three-touchdown performance in Atlanta’s Week 4 loss to Washington. On the season, Patterson has amassed 119 rushing yards, 235 receiving yards and five all-purpose touchdowns. Meanwhile, starter Mike Davis has only mustered 231 combined yards and just one trip to the end zone. Clearly, fantasy owners are giving up on Davis and buying into Patterson. Let me tell you that Davis is a complete bust. To put it simply, he’s just not very good. Anyone who thought he would perform as he did last year in CMC’s absence has been sorely mistaken. Patterson is quite obviously the most valuable player to own in fantasy. That said, if I owned Patterson and he scores double-digit fantasy points again this week, I am trading him immediately. Patterson’s never been a fantasy gem in his long career and has never had as much value as he had right now. Fantasy owners should absolutely strike a deal while he is so coveted by other owners. I can guarantee you that Patterson is not going to continue on this ridiculous pace. If you can trade him now, do it.
Lastly, I want to talk about a player who is being traded quite a bit this week despite very consistent performances through the first four weeks of the season. Stefon Diggs was drafted as a first or second-round pick in 2021. Diggs has produced at least 60 yards in each of his first four appearances this year, however, he has only eclipsed 100 yards once and has one touchdown on the young season. Many fantasy owners have decided that Diggs is not going to be as good as he was in 2020. I’m here to tell you that those people are wrong. Diggs is still Josh Allen’s go-to option even though Allen loves to spread the ball around. Don’t forget that Diggs led the league last year in targets. The Bills have a very competent offense and Diggs is going to continue to see a ton of looks. If Diggs is offered to you at a fair price, get him on your squad. You never want to let a top-10 player out of your grasp.
Well, that’s it for this week. Check back in ahead of Week 6 to see the biggest movers on the trade market. To access trading predictive analytics, utilize the Fantasy Assistant on FantasySP.
