Using Predictive Analytics To Identify Top Waiver Wire Options In Week 5
Welcome to Week 5! It's time to use Predictive analytics to understand the latest waiver wire trends in fantasy football. Why are people so high on Samaje Perine? Is he more valuable than tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Schultz in the longterm?
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Predictive analytics in a nutshell is a game-changer for fantasy players. No one else in the industry offers these types of insights. You will now be able to analyze the most important fantasy metrics of the current week BEFORE waivers are processed.
Find out the Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) of each player, as well as how much of your FAAB budget it would take to get “your guy” in the average league. You will now have unique insights into which players fantasy owners are giving up on and which players fantasy owners are fighting for in the current week.
Looking At Predictive Adds
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The Top Two Running Backs Of The Week
Damien Williams has a massive 99% Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) after David Montgomery suffered what looked like a brutal injury in Week 4. With Montgomery sidelined for the fourth quarter, the former Super Bowl hero produced 70 all-purpose yards on eight carries and two receptions, as well as a scamper to the end zone. Williams was dealing with a thigh injury of his own, however, with Montgomery sidelined for the foreseeable future, Williams should serve as the Bears’ RB1 for the next few weeks. Khalil Herbert will be used too, but Williams is the man to own in the backfield until Montgomery is healthy. Since Williams will be owned in 99% of leagues after this week, it will likely take a decent chunk of your FAAB budget to get him.
Cincinnati Bengals running back Samaje Perine has the second-highest EWI of all players heading into Week 5. Although Perine has only mustered 58 yards on 12 touches this season, he appears to be the early-down back if Joe Mixon misses substantial time. Rookie Chris Evans will have a role in Cincinnati as the passing-down specialist, but Perine should be utilized in goal-to-go situations, which could translate into touchdowns. Yes, the opportunity will be there. However, I’m not sold on Perine’s talent. He hasn’t done anything with his touches yet and I don’t anticipate that changing in 2021. Although Perine is being added in most leagues, don’t break the bank to get him.
Tight Ends Being Added Across All Leagues
Dawson Knox was owned in 50% of fantasy leagues prior to this week. After his Week 4 outing in which he produced an excellent touchdown reception from Josh Allen, Knox will be owned in all but 10-15% of leagues. He has caught 4 touchdown passes in his last three games.
The other tight end who is seeing a massive increase in ownership is Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz. Schultz has seen a ridiculous 15 targets over the last two weeks and has caught 12 passes for 138 yards and three touchdowns. Despite all the talent in Dallas, there is still room for Dak Prescott to link up with his tight end. Schultz could be a monster over the rest of the season. He’s definitely worth adding heading into Week 5.
The Most-Added Wide Receiver & Quarterback
New York Jets slot receiver Jamison Crowder is being added more than any other wide receiver in Week 5. In his first game back from injury, the journeyman caught seven of nine targets for 61 yards and a touchdown from rookie signal-caller Zach Wilson. Crowder has played with several subpar quarterbacks so, despite Wilson’s struggles as a rookie, this is still an upgrade. Expect Crowder to lead New York’s wide receiver corps in receptions, yardage, and even touchdowns.
Crowder’s previous quarterback, Sam Darnold, is enjoying a resurgence in the first quarter of the 2021 season. In his debut campaign with the Panthers, Darnold has eclipsed 300 yards in each of his previous three outings. He also has five passing touchdowns and a league-leading five additional rushing touchdowns. The rushing touchdowns are unlikely to continue, however, he has already surpassed his expectations. With Christian McCaffrey returning soon, Darnold is only going to improve. No wonder he has the highest EWI of all quarterbacks heading into Week 5.
Looking At Predictive Drops:
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After rushing for just three yards on two carries, Myles Gaskin is being dropped more than anyone heading into Week 5. While I think it is still a bit too early to drop him, I completely understand why owners are giving up on the young back. The Dolphins offense is absolutely abysmal with Jacoby Brissett under center. Honestly, I’m not so sure it would be much better with Tua. Even when Tua returns, the Dolphins are going to struggle on the offensive side of the ball. For that reason, if there is someone with immense upside available, I have absolutely no problem with owners cutting ties with Gaskin.
Allen Robinson is another name that has a pretty high EDI (Expected Drop Interset). Robinson has been abysmal to begin the 2021 season. Although he has always excelled even with poor quarterback play, that doesn’t seem to be the case this season with the combination of Andy Dalton and rookie Justin Fields under center. A-Rob has only caught 13 passes for 159 yards and one touchdown through four weeks of the season. He has been outplayed by fellow wideout Darnell Mooney. And now with David Montgomery injured, the Bears’ offense is going to struggle even more. Still, it’s way too early to let Robinson go. Remember, this is a guy who caught 80 passes for 1400 yards when Blake Bortles was his quarterback in Jacksonville. A-Rob is an excellent buy-low candidate if Robinson’s owner wants to trade him. And if he’s available on the waiver wire, do not hesitate. You won’t find anyone more talented.
Now... let's look at the top players at each position available on the waiver wire.
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
Darnold has earned a spot in each of these articles thus far this year. He has clearly improved since moving on from the New York Jets and had another strong outing in Carolina’s first loss of the season against the Dallas Cowboys. Darnold may not be an MVP candidate but with Christian McCaffrey only a week or two from his return and DJ Moore progressing into an elite wideout, Darnold has been a solid starting quarterback for any fantasy squad. Pick the man up.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
Lance is a potential league-winning quarterback due to his ability to move the chains and score touchdowns with his legs. Lance was phenomenal in the second half of last week’s game, even if it came against a Seahawks secondary that is atrocious. Lance’s 20+ points in the second half demonstrate his ridiculous upside. If we knew Kyle Shanahan would bench Jimmy G, I would recommend spending all of your FAAB money if you needed a quarterback. However, there is some risk considering we don’t know the extent of Garoppolo’s injury. I think it’s worth picking up Lance for his huge fantasy upside, but I wouldn’t break the bank unless we get more long-term news about Garoppolo.
Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football Team
He won’t play the Falcons every week, but Heinicke has done nothing besides play himself into a starting role for the Football Team (even when/if Ryan Fitzpatrick comes back). While he’s better-suited as a fantasy backup, Heinicke has been worthy of a weekly start as of late and has a relatively decent schedule coming up.
Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
After seeing Lock play the second half against the Ravens, it is quite obvious that Teddy Bridgewater is the superior quarterback. Still, Lock does have a decent arm despite his inaccuracy issues. If you are in a SuperFlex league, he’s not the worst option.
Running Back
Damien Williams, Chicago Bears
Here’s the biggest injury news to watch as we progress through the early part of the week. If David Montgomery is going to miss the majority of the season, Williams becomes an absolute must-add. I’m talking about spending close to 80% of your FAAB budget. That’s how good he can be, which we could see on his second-half touchdown run in Week 4. Khalil Herbert looms as a nice consolation prize, but I think Williams is still the guy to grab here. He could easily serve as an RB2 moving forward or at the very least a solid flex option.
Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles
He’s been in this column before but he is available in fewer and fewer leagues as we progress through the season. The rookie is coming on strong in Philadelphia and is pushing for a timeshare (at minimum) with Miles Sanders. He’s got the added bonus of being a great pass-catcher to give you an extra boost in PPR leagues.
Samaje Perine/Chris Evans, Cincinnati Bengals
Another injury spot to watch if we see that Joe Mixon is going to miss any time. Perine is the logical pickup as he should be the every-down back, but I think Evans might actually provide the most value as the third-down/pass-catching back. Both are worth a pickup, but I especially like Evans in PPR leagues.
Giovani Bernard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gio ended up missing the Patriots game with a minor knee injury. Although Leonard Fournette played well against New England, Bernard is still poised to be Tom Brady’s favorite pass-catching back (the new James White) and is probably still available in a lot of leagues after sitting last week. Now is the time to buy low.
Jeremy McNichols, Tennessee Titans
McNichols is an interesting handcuff for Derrick Henry owners. He has proven to be a more than capable pass-catcher out of the backfield. McNichols has value so long as A.J. Brown and Julio Jones remain out for the Titans.
Wide Receivers
Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams
There’s been a lot of talk about Cooper Kupp vs. Robert Woods in the fantasy community. But I think the discussion should be more about Van Jefferson vs. Robert Woods. While Kupp has cemented himself as Matthew Stafford’s favorite receiving option, Jefferson is positioning himself to be the 2B to Woods’ 2A. There are more than enough balls to go around for the Rams, which makes Jefferson a smart add right now. At a minimum, he’s what everyone wanted Josh Reynolds to be. At best, he’s the new Robert Woods. If you are going to break the bank for any receiver, the second-year Ram might have the most upside at the position after scoring multiple touchdowns through the first quarter of the season.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
Mooney probably isn’t available in the majority of leagues, however, I know he is still there in a few. If Mooney happens to be on the waiver wire in your league, scoop him up immediately. He seems to finally be developing chemistry with rookie quarterback Justin Fields and eclipsed 100 yards in Week 4. Justin Fields loves throwing him the ball and he has excellent separation downfield. Allen Robinson has been subpar and Mooney is making a case to be Chicago’s WR1 moving forward.
Jamison Crowder, New York Jets
Why is Jamison Crowder underrated every single season? While Corey Davis, Elijah Moore and Keelan Cole still exist, Crowder has been the favorite security blanket for pretty much every quarterback he’s ever played with -- and Zach Wilson seems to be no exception to that as he threw the ball to Crowder nine times in the veteran’s season debut. He’s available pretty much everywhere and is definitely worthy of a speculative add.
AJ Green, Arizona Cardinals
Green is looking like the perennial Pro Bowl wide receiver with Kyler Murray at the helm. Green has seen six targets in every game he’s played this season and has found the end zone twice in four games. While there are a lot of mouths to feed in Arizona, Murray has been doing a good job of spreading the balls around and should continue to target Green at a similar pace. Green is also an excellent red-zone threat and should see tons of targets in the endzone for this electrifying Cardinals offense.
Kalif Raymond, Detroit Lions
Raymond had an awesome performance on Sunday, catching two touchdown passes, however, don’t go breaking the bank for him just quite yet. Yes, Raymond is a decent pass catcher. That said, he’s done the majority of his work in garbage time. The Lions are going to try to run the ball as much as possible with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams so I wouldn’t expect more than four to five touchdowns the rest of the season from Raymond. Plus, Raymond is never going to pass T.J. Hockenson as Jared Goff’s favorite target.
Zach Pascal, Indianapolis Colts
Pascal is being underutilized in fantasy leagues. It seems like he makes a big play game after game, yet he is owned in almost no leagues. Pascal should continue to be peppered with targets for as long as T.Y. Hilton remains sidelined (and he may still remain valuable even after Hilton’s return). Pascal is a solid WR4/WR5 in PPR formats.
Kadarius Toney, New York Giants
In his limited playing time this season, the first-round rookie has really impressed me. However, there are still some deep concerns about his playing time once Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton return to action. Still, if you have room on your roster, Toney could be a nice addition due to his ability to make the big plays.
Tight Ends
C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals
Uzomah had a monster game on Thursday Night Football against the Jacksonville Jaguars, catching five of six targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns. The problem with Uzomah is that he is not reliable. Still, at the thinnest position in fantasy football, it’s impossible to not recommending at least trying to spend a small portion of your FAAB budget on the big tight end. It also doesn’t help that Tee Higgins is expected to return in Week 5. Bid on Uzomah but don’t overpay. It’s impossible for him to produce at the level he did in Week 4 on a consistent basis.
Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys
I think Schultz can be a really solid play at the tight end position for the remainder of the season. Over the past two weeks, Schultz has seen a whopping 15 targets and has found the end zone three times! He’s not going to continue at this pace, however, Schultz is a must-add as the fourth-highest scoring player at his position in 2021. Don’t worry about Blake Jarwin. Schultz is the main in Dallas.
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
Knox has looked like a man possessed through the first quarter of the season. I honestly am shocked that he is owned in so few leagues. He is the fourth option in the Bills passing attack, but he is getting consistent solid looks in the red zone and has made the most of them. Knox has seen 13 targets over his last two games and has been the sixth-best tight end in all of fantasy football. Whether you are in a PPR, Standard or any other type of format, do not hesitate to add Knox.
Maxx Williams, Arizona Cardinals
Williams had a terrific game against the Rams last week but that's mainly because the Rams are awful against opposing tight ends. Still, that means back-to-back strong performances. He’s worth a look.
Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans
Firkser was identified as a potential deep sleeper prior to the season. In Firkser's first game back from an injury, he had five targets against the Jets. He is a trusted receiver for Ryan Tannehill, and I do like his upside. He's probably a very sneaky stash at this point.