Fantasy Football For Breakfast (7/16)
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Ezekiel Elliott THINKING HOLDOUT
NEWS: PFT reported Ezekiel Elliott "privately said he will hold out of training camp unless he gets a new contract."
ANALYSIS: The big Melvin Gordon holdout news would take a back seat if this rumor is true. The Cowboys back has two years left on his rookie deal. I like the "privately said" detail here. I guess it was not-so private after all.
I can't imagine a dead would be forthcoming if he pursues this although maybe the Cowboys can save money long-term by front-loading a contract extension rather than waiting for his value to balloon over these next two years.
They say where there's smoke, there's fire but Fantasy owners can't just let Zeke slip past the second or third spot in their draft until this thing builds more momentum. There has to be some firmer evidence that this holdout would affect the regular season before I'm flinching.
Phillip Lindsay "WILL BE 100 PERCENT" FOR CAMP
NEWS: "In my mind I'm ready," Phillip Lindsay said. Previously, head coach Vic Fangio said he expects Lindsay to be ready for camp. Lindsay is recovering from ankle surgery after sustaining ligament damage in late December.
ANALYSIS: Lindsay literally came out of nowhere and broke an axle on the Royce Freeman hype bandwagon. If this was that Oregon Trail game, Freeman died of typhoid before reaching Fort Kearney. Sorry, let's ignore that reference and we'll just say his rookie campaign never got off the ground.
So due to this wrist injury and Freeman's hype resurfacing, Lindsay is a popular fade candidate. Most seem to think he'll fall short of his 2018 production and in response, Freeman will get more opportunities to produce.
My final takeaway here is with Joe Flacco under center, just like Case Keenum before him, there's not enough here on offense to really move the needle. I'll be happy to draft Lindsay or Freeman if they fall significantly in the draft from their current ADPs but this offense doesn't have explosive potential. At best, either player has low to middling RB2 upside with unappealing floors. When I draft, I want a higher ceiling and floor given the ADP of both guys. Neither player provides that in such a crummy offense.
David Johnson's RECEIVING TALENTS WILL "COME BACK TO FOREFRONT"
NEWS: AZCardinals.com speculated that Johnson will once again be successful as a pass-catcher in new head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense.
ANALYSIS: In a recent high-stakes draft from the Fantasy Football Online Championship, Johnson was drafted fifth overall. That's in-line with where most high-drafters are taking him as his draft range in FullTime Fantasy's Advanced ADP is between the 3rd & 9th pick. In six out of the last ten high-stakes drafts, he's been picked fifth or sixth.
For me, the risk is worrisome. It's tempting to devalue Johnson and really, most of the Cardinals' offense. However, it's hard for me to imagine Arizona somehow being as bad or worse than they were last season. So while there is a ton of ambiguity here coming off an awful season with a new rookie QB, coaching staff, Larry Fitzgerald's age and the cast of unknown misfits vying for playing time at WR & TE, the risks and hand-wringing concern is already baked in these players' values. I don't mind taking Johnson at 5 (after Barkley, Elliott, Kamara & McCaffrey in any order) despite guys like Hopkins, Thomas & Adams being significantly safer picks. And I don't mind slight reaches for Christian Kirk or Andy Isabella or even a late-round handcuff flier on Chase Edmonds if you take Johnson.
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