NBA Odds, Predictions, Player Props: October 27 NBA Betting Guide
We have a four-game slate on tonight’s NBA schedule. NBA TV will broadcast the Dallas Mavericks at Brooklyn Nets game at 7:30 PM EST followed by the Miami Heat at the Golden State Warriors at 10:00 PM EST.
Let’s dive in on some of the hottest bets and player props for tonight’s games.
Please Note: All odds are from FanDuel and were accurate as of 11:00 AM EST.
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NBA Best Bets of the Night (October 27, 2022)
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Brooklyn Nets +2.5 (-108)
The Nets are now 1-3 after blowing a 10+ point lead to the Milwaukee Bucks on the road last night. Steve Nash had a rare meltdown with the referees which resulted in an ejection. As frustration continues for the Nets as they kick off their regular season, they host the Dallas Mavericks at the Barclays Center tonight in a game which Las Vegas has the Nets as the two-point underdogs. Brooklyn is in desperate need of a win while Ben Simmons continues to struggle. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are doing their part for the Nets with little help from the rest of the roster. The Nets were built to win a championship and make a deep playoff run. They knew they will turn it around in this marathon of a season but they can’t be complacent after a 1-3 start.
Dallas heads into Brooklyn with a 1-2 record. On paper, they are the better team. The Mavericks certainly have a size advantage against the Nets. 7’3” center Christian Wood has been phenomenal for the Mavs to kick off the season. It would be wise for Jason Kidd to put Wood on Kevin Durant to make sure of the big man’s rize and long reach. Wood doesn’t have the quickness to stick with KD but he has good insticints and his long arms may prevent Durant from getting such easy buckets. Durant’s height and long arms are major factors that have allowed him to become one of the most prolific scorers in NBA history. As a center, Wood is versatile and moves around the court as opposed to hanging out beneath the basket. If Wood is able to prevent KD from taking a bunch of shots in the contest, the Nets will be in trouble. Durant is off to a superb start this season. He’s produced 32 PPG on 55.9% shooting from the field, 4.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and two blocks per game to start the 2022-23 NBA season. He’s had at least 18 field goal attempts in each of the Nets’ first four games of the season. This is why the Mavericks will need to bring Christian Wood out on him. I would personally be shocked if Jason Kidd assigned Wood to guard a big like Nicolas Claxton down low instead of having him out on KD all game.
Through the first four games of the regular season, Brooklyn seems fundamentally incapable of producing any efficient offense through anyone but Kyirie Irving and Durant. I believe that KD will struggle from the field tonight largely because Dallas’ defense will prevent him from taking as many shots as he has in each contest so far this season. If Wood doesn’t work out on Durant, the Mavericks also have Dorian Finney-Smith who is an excellent perimeter defender. If the Mavericks’ D is able to contain Durant, expect Luka Doncic to link up with Christian Wood on offense to guarantee a victory over the Nets on the road. Also look for Luka and Spencer Dinwiddie to take advantage of poor defense from Brooklyn’s backcourt consisting of Kyrie Irving or Royce O’Neale. O’Neale is a great defender but he’s not used to matching up with somewhat of Dinwiddie's caliber and speed.
The Pick: Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (-112)
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Game: Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder +7 (-110)
Can OKC defend the home floor or even keep it close as they host the Los Angeles Clippers tonight? I think not. The 2-2 Clippers look a lot stronger now with Paul George healthy and Kawhi Leonard healthy for the most part. Kawhi is sidelined at least for tonight’s contest and the next after dealing with “stiffness” in his surgically repaired knee. The Clippers have been very conservative with Kawhi to kick off the season. He’s played in two of the Clippers’ first four games of the season and was limited to just 21 minutes in each contest he played in. Taking this into consideration, the Clippers have essentially rolled without Kawhi since the season began. For that reason, people shouldn’t be too concerned about the impact of him missing tonight’s contest against OKC.
Unfortunately for the Clippers, they will also be without PF Marcus Morris Sr. while SG Paul George (Non-Covid Illness) is currently listed as questionable ahead of tonight’s game. It is undeniable that the Clippers are short-handed as they head into OKC. For this reason alone, it could be an interesting decision to pull the trigger on the moneyline for OKC as they take on the Clippers who will be without three of their best players if George remains sidelined. As a result, the Clippers’ offense (at least on paper) should be less efficient which gives OKC a good chance of keeping things close. The Thunder may even have a chance to pull off an upset victory tonight. Los Angeles is heading into OKC with a depleted starting lineup while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been red-hot to start the season. Gilgeous-Alexander has played in two of OKC’s three games so far this season and averaged 31 PPG (49.3 FG%), 4.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.7 blocks. Even if Paul George is able to suit up, OKC has a good chance of keeping things interesting at home as they take on the Clippers in the second of back-to-back games between both teams. The one thing hurting the Thunder’s chances tonight is Josh Giddey’s absence but that is something this young team can overcome with SGA on the court. If PG-13 isn’t active, Los Angeles doesn’t have anyone who can keep up with SGA’s speed and versatility.
The Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder, +7 (-110)
Game: Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors -6 (-114)
Miami is coming off of a big road win against the Portland Trail Blazers to spoil the last remaining undefeated record in the NBA this season. Six players on the Heat scored at least 14+ points last night to hand Portland a 4-1 record. Golden State has a 2-2 record and is looking to stay above .500 with a win over Miami. It seems unlikely that the Heat are able to reproduce their stellar ball-movement and impressive efficiency shooting from the field in their second consecutive road game in two days. The Warriors will bounce back and win big against the Heat Thursday night. Only Andre Iguodola and Donte DiVincenzo will be sidelined so look for the Splash Brothers to go bonkers at home against a tough Eastern Conference foe. We could be looking at a preview of the NBA Finals so don’t be surprised if Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler each drop 30+ points in this one.
The Pick: Golden State Warriors -6 (-114)
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NBA Player Props of the Night (October 27, 2022)
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Brooklyn Nets +2 (-108)
Prop #1: Luka Doncic Over 32.5 Points (-104)
Luka Magic has averaged more points per game (34.7) than minutes per contest (34.3) through the Mavericks’ first three games of the 2022-23 regular season. While he has only converted 8-of-32 (25 3PT%) three-pointers this season, Doncic is still shooting 50% from the field. He’s produced 35 points, 32 points, and 37 points respectively in the first three games of the season. Doncic will need to have another night like this against Kyrie, KD, and the Nets. He attempted a whopping 30 field goal attempts against the Pelicans on Tuesday night. Expect him to score 33 points or more as Dallas pays a visit to the Brooklyn Nets this evening. He has the size mismatch over Irving so I’m anticipating a lot of free throws and attacks to the rim.
Prop #2: Christian Wood Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-128)
To kick off the season, Christian Wood has averaged 24.3 points per game shooting 62.2% from the field. He’s gone 8-of-13 (61.5%) from downtown in the first three games of the season. In two of his first three games for the Mavericks, Wood produced at least three three-pointers. He’s looking like he’s worked on that shot, and the Mavericks are comfortable dishing him the ball to attempt the deep ball. Wood will be a crucial factor against the Nets tonight. Expect him to score, and hit at least two three-pointers in Brooklyn despite coming off the bench. Brooklyn doesn’t have a big man with the size and speed to close out on Wood’s sweet stroke. He should clear this prop with ease.
Prop #3: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 16.5 Points (-113)
Dinwiddie has scored 15 points in each of Dallas’ first two games. He followed that up with a 24-point game (8-of-15 FG) in 38 minutes against the Pelicans on Wednesday night. Dinwiddie is becoming more of a scorer than a ball-handler as he plays alongside Luka Doncic. Through the first three games of the season, he’s shot 51.3% from the field and 55.6% from downtown for 18 PPG. The Mavs will need him to score similar figures against the Nets this evening. Dinwiddie played for Brooklyn for five seasons (2016-2020) and should be poised to take on his old team again. Expect him to score 17 or more points against Brooklyn tonight, especially with the speed matchup he has against Royce O’Neale. We may also see the veteran play more on the ball than off of itt, which could present more scoring lanes.
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If you want to take a risk on a four-leg Same Game Parlay, consider the Mavs outright to win and the three props above. With a whopping +854 odds, you could turn $25 into $213.57. Place your bet on FanDuel today.
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