2022 NL Cy Young Futures Odds & Picks
We’re just one week away from the MLB regular-season action and we’re barely behind schedule. With the season set to start on April 7, we can start to wrap up our futures bets and take a look at the NL Cy Young odds. A pair of Mets and former Cy Young Award winners lead the list with Jacob deGrom (+330) and Max Scherzer (+800). After that, you have last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner with the Milwaukee Brewers ace, Corbin Burnes (+950). Check out the pitchers that sportsbooks think to have the best shot at winning the award:
- Jacob deGrom +330
- Max Scherzer +800
- Corbin Burners +950
- Walker Buehler +1000
- Zack Wheeler +1000
- Brandon Woodruff +1300
- Aaron Nola +1500
- Max Fried +1500
- Carlos Rodon +1800
- Logan Webb +1800
- Jack Flaherty +2200
- Sandy Alcantara +2200
- Blake Snell +2200
- Joe Musgrove +2200
- Charlie Morton +2500
- Luis Castillo +3000
- Chris Bassitt +3000
- Yu Darvish +3500
- Pablo Lopez +3500
- Julio Urias +3500
- Ian Anderson +3500
- Clayton Kershaw +4000
- Marcus Stroman +4500
- Wade Miley +5000
- Adrian Houser +5000
- Anthony DeSclafani +5000
- Adam Wainwright +6000
- Stephen Strasburg +7000
- Madison Bumgarner +7000
- Steven Matz +8000
- Miles Mikolas +8000
- Andrew Heaney +8000
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2022 NL Cy Young Award Picks
These are my favorite pitchers to throw a few shekels at for the 2022 Cy Young Award.
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers +950
While I firmly agree that Jacob DeGrom is the best pitcher in baseball right now, I just can’t get past his +330 odds. That leaves you very little wiggle room to pick more pitchers unless you want to throw the whole bank down on him. I’ll pass on Max Scherzer as well as most pitchers (aside from DeGrom) trend downward after arriving with the Mets. That leaves us with the third shortest odds and 2022 Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes. At just under 10-1 odds, Burnes is worth throwing some chips at. Burnes was absolutely on fire last season striking out 243 batters in just 167 innings for an eyepopping 12.6 Ks per nine innings. Burnes led the league in ERA (2.43) over 28 starts last season. He has the two best qualities a pitcher can have. He strikes out a ton of batters and walks very few, leading the league in K/BB with 6.88 batters set down for every free pass he gives out. He also led the entire league in home runs per nine. These are solid indicators that he can reproduce another season like his 2021 campaign, and he should be doing it for a contender again in Milwaukee.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies +1500
Aaron Nola is a great value at 15-1 odds to win the 2022 Cy Young after coming off perhaps his worst season. Nola had his worst career ERA at 4.63 but posted his best K/BB ratio with 5.72, nearly two more strikeouts than his career average. Allowing 26 home runs is the main reason why he struggled last season. He’ll have a ton of run support with his stout lineup behind him. If he can keep the ball on the ground at a higher rate this season, his numbers like ERA and wins should greatly improve this season. He can find himself in the Cy Young conversation as he did in 2018 (3rd) and 2020 (7th).
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants +1800
Logan Webb broke out last season as a 24-year-old finishing the season with a 3.03 ERA in 148.1 innings. Going into his prime, Webb is no longer a young pitcher but expected to be the ace for a San Franciso Giant team that has always been known for its pitching and plays in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark. Webb walked just 2.2 batters per nine innings, greatly improving from his 2019 and 2020 numbers. On top of that, Webb improved as the 2021 season went along. His trajectory and learning curve seems to be extremely steep. At this pace, he’ll be pitching in the All-Star game and will be a part of Cy Young talks this season. At +1800, I love the value Webb offers here.
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Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins +2200
Like Logan Webb, Alcantara’s control has greatly improved over his career. Back in 2017 and 2018, Alcantara posted 6.2 BB/9 over his first 42 innings in the big leagues. Fast forward to 2021 and Alcantara went 205.2 innings while walking 2.2 batters per nine. Although wins aren’t looked at too much in regards to the Cy Young Award, Alcantara’s 9-15 record with a 3.19 ERA is seemingly impossible to get any worse if he allows the same amount of runs. His team will most likely make it hard for him to get real consideration. If the Marlins can scrap to a record in the .500 neighborhood, Alcantara has the stuff to be a contender for this award. In the last two full seasons (2019/2021), he started all 65 possible games he could start. Reliability and availability are extremely important in these awards as too many missed starts could take a worthy winner out of contention. Alcantara gives you a great chance of staying on the mound every start.
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds +3000
Speaking of durability and reliability, Luis Castillo has started every game but one over his past four seasons. Coming off of a down year where his ERA nearly shot up to 4.00, Castillo is definitely worthy of being in the +2000-2500 range, but playing for the mediocre Reds and coming off of a weak 2021 season, Castillo will be sitting in the weeds after 2021. An All-Star in 2019, Castillo improved with his home run numbers last season but had trouble with his control, walking 3.7 batters per nine. Although it was a shortened season in 2020, Castillo showed that he’s capable of dropping the walks and pumping up the strikeout numbers (89Ks to just 24 BBs over 70 innings). Castillo is still in his 20s going into his sixth season and has the talent and strength to be the Reds' top-notch Ace this coming season.
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